UCF vs. SMU odds, line: College basketball picks, top predictions from model on 16-8 roll

UCF hosts SMU in a critical game with AAC and NCAA Tournament implications at noon ET on Sunday on CBS Sports Network. UCF (19-6, 9-4) is in fourth place in the conference with a RPI of 32. SMU (13-12, 5-8) can play spoiler to the Knights, but it also needs wins to quality for any postseason berth. The Knights are 7.5-point sportsbook favorites with the over-under for total points scored at 134.5 in the latest UCF vs. SMU odds. Before you lock in your UCF vs. SMU picks, check out the college basketball predictions from SportsLine's proven prediction model. 

The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $5,200 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. It also entered Week 16 of the 2018-19 college basketball season on a blistering 16-8 run on top-rated college basketball side picks either against the spread or on the money line. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now it has locked in on UCF vs. SMU. We can tell you it's leaning over, but it has also locked in a confident against-the-spread pick that hits in nearly 70 percent of simulations, a massively confident selection which you can see over at SportsLine.

UCF had won three in a row -- starting with a 71-65 win at SMU on Feb. 10 -- before falling 60-55 Thursday night at Cincinnati. But the Knights committed 15 first-half turnovers that put them in a huge hole. UCF typically only commits 11.7 per game, and SMU doesn't force many (12.2 per game, 252th in the country).

The Knights are 9-1 when allowing 63 or fewer points. SMU averages 73.9 ppg but managed only 66 at home against UCF two weeks ago. Tacko Fall (10.4 ppg, 6.8 rpg) is a big reason for that -- the 7-6 center's 2.7 blocks per game ranks seventh in the nation and he's shooting a ridiculous 76.4 percent. When he scores in double figures, UCF is 14-1. He has also won all 25 opening tips for the Knights.

But just because the Knights have at-large goals and won the first meeting between the teams doesn't mean they'll cover the SMU vs. UCF spread on Sunday.

The Mustangs are coming off arguably their best win of the season. After losing five straight, SMU took care of Connecticut by 18 points Thursday, setting season-highs in field goal percentage (57.1) and opponent field goal percentage (30.0).

Senior 6-foot PG Jahmal McMurray had 25 points on 10-of-14 shooting Thursday. The Mustangs' leading scorer (18 ppg) played just six minutes in the first meeting against the Knights in a six-point loss after being late for practice the day before. Having their 6-foot senior leader in the lineup makes a huge difference.

So who wins SMU vs. Central Florida? And which side of the spread can you bank on in nearly 70 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the SMU vs. Central spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $5,200 on its college basketball picks the past two years, and find out.

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