Virginia vs. Louisville odds, line: College basketball picks, top predictions from model on 16-8 roll

No. 18 Louisville looks to slow down red-hot No. 3 Virginia when they meet Saturday in an Atlantic Coast Conference showdown. The Cavaliers (23-2, 11-2) are 8-1 on the road and have beaten everyone on their schedule except Duke, while the Cardinals (18-9, 9-5) try to position themselves for long ACC and NCAA Tournament runs. Tipoff from KFC Yum! Center is scheduled for noon ET. It is the first of two regular-season meetings between the schools. The Cavaliers are 5-point favorites in the latest Virginia vs. Louisville odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 124.5. You'll want to see the college basketball predictions from SportsLine's proven projection model before laying any Virginia vs. Louisville picks down of your own.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $5,200 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. It also entered Week 16 of the 2018-19 college basketball season on a blistering 16-8 run on top-rated college basketball side picks either against the spread or on the money line. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now the model has dialed in on Virginia vs. Louisville. We can tell you it is leaning over, and it has a strong against-the-spread pick that cashes in nearly 60 percent of simulations. That one is only available at SportsLine.

The Cavaliers find themselves in familiar territory, having qualified for the NCAA Tournament 22 times, including five in a row and six of the previous nine seasons under coach Tony Bennett. Virginia has dominated the series with Louisville, going 12-3, and is 5-2 all-time at Louisville. This is the ninth year in a row Virginia has had a winning record.

The Cavaliers are now tied for first in the ACC with Duke and North Carolina, and have a statistical edge over the Cardinals. Virginia is ranked sixth nationally in 3-point percentage (40) and is 42nd in field goal percentage (47.4). The Cavaliers are led by junior guard Kyle Guy (15.4 ppg), who has put up big numbers the past four games, including 23 points against Virginia Tech and 22 against Notre Dame.

But just because the Cavaliers have been dominant does not guarantee they cover the Virginia vs. Louisville spread on Saturday.

That's because Louisville is 13-3 at home and has won eight of its past 12. The Cardinals are tied for sixth in the conference with Virginia Tech and have clinched a winning record for the fourth year in a row since the NCAA stripped them of their records during a four-year span under coach Rick Pitino. Louisville also had winning records in the 10 years prior to that.

Sophomore forward Jordan Nwora (17.3 ppg) has been hot. He has surpassed his average in four of the past six games, including 23 points against Duke. Senior forward Dwayne Sutton (10.7 ppg) has surpassed his average in six of 10, including 19 vs. North Carolina Feb. 2 and 15 vs. Duke Feb. 12.

So who wins Louisville vs. Virginia? And which side of the spread can you bank on in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Louisville vs. Virginia spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $5,200 on its college basketball picks the past two years, and find out.

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