Is Bill Belichick OK? I'm growing concerned about his emotional state. I don't think he's over Tom Brady yet. Last year, Belichick and the Patriots were essentially dumped by Brady as he opted to leave New England and go to Tampa Bay. The Pats replaced him with Cam Newton. We know how it worked out.
Now, after winning a Super Bowl, we've heard the last few weeks about how Brady and the Bucs were working on an extension. It came on Friday, as Brady signed a new deal with Tampa. Do you know what else happened Friday? The Pats brought Cam Newton back, too.
It reminds me of an old friend from college. She was dumped by her boyfriend and then watched that boyfriend quickly jump into a new relationship with a woman he ended up marrying a few years later. She quickly jumped into a new relationship, too. The difference was, she was with a guy she didn't like very much. I know this because she'd complain about him a lot. Yet she wouldn't dump him! I suspected that she just wasn't over the previous relationship and was trying to convince herself this new one would work if given time. It didn't. Eventually, she came to her senses and moved on.
Anyway, I couldn't help but think about that when I saw that the Patriots were bringing Newton back.
As for what else is going on today, let's catch up.
- Keep up with all the latest updates to Jerry Palm's bracket projections.
- Virginia became the latest team to drop out of its conference tournament due to COVID.
- Saints WR Michael Thomas is restructuring his deal to help the Saints.
- Will fans return to college football stadiums next fall if given the chance?
Now, it's time for tonight's picks. I have three college basketball picks for tonight, as well as some soccer to get you through the entire weekend.
All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 12 Oklahoma State, 6:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Under 147.5 (-110): Another night, another exciting matchup in the Big 12 tournament. We have one of the best teams in the country in Baylor going against an Oklahoma State team led by Cade Cunningham, who could be the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft. Unfortunately, as fun as this game is likely to be, I'm telling you to root for the under.
Considering how many threes Baylor takes and how many it makes (it leads the country at 42.8%), it can be scary to take an under. It's the right play, though. These teams met twice during the season, with Baylor winning both matchups. The first game featured 147 points, while the rematch jumped up to 151. In that rematch, Oklahoma State -- a team that has shot 46.5% on the season -- shot 53.8% from the floor. Despite shooting the lights out that night, the game still finished only 3.5 points above where the total is tonight.
With both teams playing for the second night in a row, it will be difficult for both to play at 100%, and that will keep us below the total more often than not.
Key Trend: There are no trends that support this pick. I'm sorry. Both of these teams have played to the over all year, but that's helped inflate this total even higher than it should be.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Advanced Computer Model likes one side of the spread in this matchup a lot.
💰 The Picks
🏀 College Basketball
No. 7 Houston vs. Tulane, 7 p.m. | TV: ESPN2
The Pick: Houston -18 (-110) -- Who doesn't want to lay 18 points in a conference tournament game? I mean, at least it'll keep the game interesting? Of course, it might not, which is one reason I'm on the Cougars at this number. Houston beat Tulane twice during the regular season, winning the first game by 21 and the second by 23.
Tulane has one of the worst offenses in the country. Its adjusted efficiency ranks 235th nationally according to KenPom, and the Wave shoots 44% from two (329th nationally) and 30% from three (313th). That's a problem against one of the country's best offenses, and while Tulane's defense is respectable, it's not respectable enough.
Key Trend: Houston went 12-5 ATS in conference play this season.
Oregon vs. Oregon State, 8:30 p.m. | TV: Pac-12 Network
The Pick: Oregon -8.5 (-110) -- One thing I like to look for this time of year is teams coming off of overtime games. Nearly everybody is playing on consecutive nights at this point, but every minute counts, particularly when they're intense minutes. Like the kind you typically play in games that need overtime.
The Beavers upset UCLA last night in an ugly, foul festival. Seriously, there were 48 fouls called in the game, with 56 free throw attempts and five players who fouled out. It wasn't the kind of performance for Oregon State I'd consider sustainable. Tonight they get an Oregon team that cruised to an 18-point win over Arizona State and comes into this game having won 11 of 12.
Key Trend: Oregon is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 neutral site games.
⚽ Premier League
Arsenal vs. Tottenham, Sunday, 12:30 p.m | TV: NBCSN
The Pick: Arsenal (+155) -- As somebody who has profited handsomely by blindly fading Arsenal when it is favored this year, believe me, this pick hurts. That said, it's a pick that is borne of the same spirit of #FadeArsenal. Soccer seasons are long and teams ebb and flow. Right now, Tottenham's on a hot streak. It's won five straight and six of seven. Gareth Bale has seemingly rediscovered his form and passion for the game. He's unstoppable. People are wondering if Tottenham has figured it out. It may have.
It's also possible Tottenham's been beating up on a bunch of bums.
Two of Tottenham's last six wins have come against Wolfsberger AC, a fifth-place team in the Austrian league. Another win has come against Dinamo Zagreb, the best team in Croatia. The other wins have come against Burnley (15th in Premier League), Fulham (18th) and Crystal Palace (13th). The lone loss came against the only good team they've played in that stretch (West Ham). We saw the same run from Tottenham earlier this year when it went eight straight matches without losing against the bottom of the league and lower-level sides in cup competitions. Then it lost five of its next six when the competition became real again. Arsenal isn't great, but it's improving, and its improvement has come against better teams than the ones Spurs have been beating up on. I'm trusting my gut here.
Key Trend: Tottenham has lost seven of 12 matches against top-10 teams in the Premier League this season.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: SportsLine's projection model has generated selections for Friday's Big 12 showdown between the Jayhawks and Longhorns. It's found good value on the total.
💸 The DFS Rundown
PG: Malcolm Brogdon, Pacers
SG: Donovan Mitchell, Jazz
SF: Jimmy Butler, Heat
PF: Tobias Harris, Sixers
C: Joel Embiid, Sixers
PG: Sterling Brown, Rockets
SG: Dwayne Bacon, Magic
SF: Kenyon Martin, Rockets
PF: Jae'Sean Tate, Rockets
C: Kelly Olynyk, Heat
Full lineup advice
Get winning NBA DFS picks from SportsLine pros Mike McClure and Jacob Gibbs. McClure has won almost $2 million in daily Fantasy, while Gibbs crushed the NBA last season, cashing around 65 percent of the time in cash games and nearly 45 percent of the time in tournaments. See their DraftKings advice and FanDuel lineups here.
⚽ European Soccer Money Line Parlay
A parlay to give you something to sweat the entire weekend. It pays + 161.
- Real Madrid -500
- Manchester City -290
- Inter Milan -270
- PSG -560