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The 2020 college football season has been a tough time to break in a new coach, but Mike Leach's Mississippi State Bulldogs appear to finally be at full strength heading into Thursday's matchup with the No. 24 Tulsa Golden Hurricane in the 2020 Armed Forces Bowl. The Bulldogs (3-7) closed the season with a 51-32 victory against Missouri to snap a three-game slide, and freshman quarterback Will Rogers is starting to shine in Leach's pass-heavy offense. Tulsa (6-2) has lost only to a ranked Oklahoma State team to start the season and current No. 8 Cincinnati to end it. 

Kickoff is set for noon ET in Fort Worth, Texas. The Golden Hurricane are one-point favorites in William Hill Sportsbook's latest Mississippi State vs. Tulsa odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 45. Before making any Tulsa vs. Mississippi State picks, check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $3,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It enters bowl season a sizzling 56-36 on all top-rated picks, returning over $400. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mississippi State vs. Tulsa in the Armed Forces Bowl 2020. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college football odds and trends for Tulsa vs. Mississippi State:

  • Tulsa vs. Mississippi State: Golden Hurricane -1
  • Tulsa vs. Mississippi State over-under: 45
  • Tulsa vs. Mississippi State money line: Golden Hurricane -120, Bulldogs +100
  • Tulsa: RB Corey Taylor has rushed for 303 yards on 60 carries over the past three games.
  • Miss. St.: QB Will Rogers has 956 passing yards and seven TDs over the past three games.

Why Tulsa can cover

Tulsa is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven bowl games, and the defense will be able to focus on stopping the passing game. The unit allows 145.8 yards per game on the ground, but MSU averages just 36 (last in FBS). The passing defense ranks 22nd (194.1), and the unit could rattle Rogers, who has been sacked 16 times and has thrown seven interceptions in seven games. Jaxon Player and Anthony Goodlow have three sacks apiece for a unit that has 19.

The Golden Hurricane are 5-1 ATS in their last six as a favorite, and the offense has talent at every position. Quarterback Zach Smith threw for 1,600 yards and 12 TDs, with six of those to Josh Johnson. JuanCarlos Santana averaged 14.4 yards per catch, while Keylon Stokes led the team with 527 yards and tied Johnson with a team-high 37 receptions. Running backs Corey Taylor and Deneric Prince both have more than 400 yards and gain more than five yards per carry.  

Why Mississippi State can cover

Mississippi State is 10-5 against the spread in non-conference games since 2017, and the offense has been coming together. Rogers threw for 295 yards and three TDs in the finale, and he has 1,828 yards and 10 TD passes in seven games. Running back Jo'quavious Marks had 94 total yards against Missouri, and receiver Jaden Walley had 129 on five catches. The Bulldogs are last in FBS in rushing, but Marks leads the team with 56 receptions and has 478 total yards.

The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their past five Thursday games, and the defense has become formidable under new coordinator Zach Arnett. The unit finished fourth in the SEC in total yards (380.3) and rushing yards (125.3) allowed per game, and linebacker Erroll Thompson has been the heart of the unit. He has 87 tackles, two sacks and an interception, and Tyrus Wheat (four sacks) and freshman corner Emmanuel Forbes (four interceptions) also make big plays.

How to make Mississippi State vs. Tulsa picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, suggesting the teams will score almost 50 points combined. It also says one side of the spread is hitting in well over 70 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine

So who wins Tulsa vs. Mississippi State? And which side of the spread hits well over 70 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Mississippi State vs. Tulsa spread to back, all from the advanced model on a 56-36 run on its top-rated college football picks this season.