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The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders represent Conference USA in a bowl matchup against the Toledo Rockets, representing the MAC, on Friday. MTSU and Toledo get together in the 2021 Bahamas Bowl, with the matchup also kicking off the entire 2021-22 college football bowl schedule. Toledo is 7-5 after winning the final three games of the season. MTSU also finished strong with four wins in six games, finishing the regular season at 6-6 overall.

Kickoff is set for noon ET in Nassau. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Rockets at -10.5 in the latest Toledo vs. MTSU odds. The over-under for total points is down 3.5 to 49.5 with windy conditions in the forecast. Before locking in any MTSU vs. Toledo picks or Bahamas Bowl predictions, be sure to check out what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters the 2021-22 college football bowl season on a 43-29 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo and just locked in its Bahamas Bowl 2021 picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several college football odds and betting trends for Toledo vs. Middle Tennessee:

  • Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo spread: Toledo -10.5
  • Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo over-under: 49.5 points 
  • Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo money line: Toledo -430, MTSU +330
  • MT: The Blue Raiders are 6-6 against the spread in 2021 
  • TOL: The Rockets are 7-5 against the spread this season
Featured Game | Toledo Rockets vs. Middle Tenn. Blue Raiders

Why MTSU can cover

The Blue Raiders excel on defense, led by a few stars and a notably balanced and effective unit. MTSU is allowing 367.4 yards per game, with above-average marks in passing defense, yards allowed per pass attempt, interceptions, rushing defense, yards per carry allowed and scoring defense. However, MTSU is not a one-dimensional team. 

The Blue Raiders are putting up 29.8 points per game on offense, ranking in the top four of Conference USA this season. MTSU is also connecting on 64.5 percent of passes, with 26 touchdown passes on the season. The Blue Raiders are balanced, with six players generating at least 100 rushing yards and four pass-catchers producing at least 400 receiving yards in 2021.

Why Toledo can cover

Toledo led the MAC in scoring, averaging more than 34 points per game this season, but the Rockets are also strong on the defensive side of the ball. No MAC team allowed fewer points than Toledo this season, giving up only 21.0 points per game. The Rockets are giving up only 342.3 yards per game of total offense, No. 2 in the conference, and Toledo is No. 2 in the MAC in passing defense in allowing 191.5 passing yards per game. Opponents are completing only 55.5 percent of passes against Toledo, and the Rockets are allowing only 6.3 yards per pass attempt (No. 1 in the MAC) with 37 sacks and only 15 passing touchdowns allowed. 

Against the run, Toledo is stout, giving up only 3.8 yards per carry and 150.8 rushing yards per game. The Rockets lead the MAC in allowing only nine rushing touchdowns, and junior linebacker Jamal Hines is No. 2 in the conference with 10 sacks. Middle Tennessee is second-worst in Conference USA in total offense, averaging 3.5 yards per carry on the ground and converting only 30.2 percent of third-down chances.

How to make MTSU vs. Toledo picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 55 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the model's Bahamas Bowl pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.