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The Air Force Falcons can win 10 games for the fourth time in eight seasons when they take on the Louisville Cardinals in the 2021 First Responder Bowl on Tuesday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas. The Falcons (9-3) won 10 games just five times in the program's first 57 seasons but reached double-digit victories three times in the seven years after that. Air Force has lost three games this season by a combined 17 points. Meanwhile the Cardinals (6-6) need a win to avoid back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since 2008-09. 

Kickoff is 3:15 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists this game as a pick'em in the latest Louisville vs. Air Force odds. The over-under for total points is set at 55. Before locking in any Air Force vs. Louisville picks or First Responder Bowl 2021 predictions, be sure to check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters the third week of the 2021-22 college football bowl season on a 43-30 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on Louisville vs. Air Force and revealed its coveted picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see all of the model's college football picks. Here are the college football odds and trends for Air Force vs. Louisville:

  • Louisville vs. Air Force spread: Pick'em
  • Louisville vs. Air Force over-under: 55 points 
  • Louisville vs. Air Force money line: Cardinals -110, Falcons -110
  • LOU: QB Malik Cunningham ranks sixth in the nation in rushing TDs (19) 
  • AFA: The Falcons lead the country in rushing yards per game (340.8)
Featured Game | Louisville Cardinals vs. Air Force Falcons

Why Louisville can cover

Malik Cunningham is a dynamic runner with the football. The junior from Montgomery, Ala., ranks sixth in the country in rushing touchdowns (19) and 23rd in the nation in rushing yards per carry (6.01). He needs only 32 rushing yards to become just the second QB in school history to rush for 1,000 yards in a season. Lamar Jackson is the only other quarterback to reach that mark.

In addition, Louisville faces a team that cannot exploit the Cardinals' weakness on defense. Louisville is allowing 245.1 passing yards per game, which ranks 10th in the ACC and 94th in the nation. However, Air Force's triple-option offense averages just 82.5 passing yards per game; only one team, Navy, averages fewer.

Why Air Force can cover

Air Force appears to have the better defense entering this matchup. The Falcons rank fifth in the country in yards allowed per game (288.0) and 24th in yards allowed per play (5.10). Meanwhile the Cardinals rank 84th in yards allowed per game (401.8) and 82nd in yards allowed per play (5.75).

In addition, Air Force faces a Louisville offense that will be shorthanded at receiver. Jordan Watkins, who led all Cardinals wide receivers this season in receptions (35) and yards (529), entered the transfer portal after the loss to Kentucky. So too did Justin Marshall, who ranked third among receivers in catches (23) and receiving yards (322). 

How to make Louisville vs. Air Force picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 51 points. It also has an against-the-spread pick that cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's Air Force vs. Louisville picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Louisville vs. Air Force? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Air Force vs. Louisville spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is on a 43-30 run on top-rated picks, and find out.