The college football offseason once again saw significant turnover atop FBS programs with 30 teams -- 23% of the FBS -- changing coaches, which means there's a large swath entering honeymoon year with their new schools. Couple that with a number of programs who are either anticipating or experiencing concern over conference realignment, and there are plenty of unknowns entering 2022.
The 2022 Hot Seat Rankings should be noted for their coolness with 79 coaches -- nearly 60% of the FBS -- rated 0 or 1, meaning they are either "virtually untouchable" or "safe and secure."
The Hot Seat has long been an accurate predictor in terms of job security. Over the last five years, 23 of the 35 coaches rated 4 or worse in the preseason eventually lost their jobs (66%).
Entering the 2022 season, there are only eight coaches on the proverbial hot seat (rated 4 or higher). However, you can be sure there will be far more than eight coaching changes as that damn coaching carousel is always spinning.
In addition to the full set of rankings below, we have detailed those eight coaches sitting on the hottest seats ahead of the 2022 campaign, though there is also a group "Notable 3s" to keep an eye on throughout the season.
Mike Norvell is 8-13 (6-10 ACC) in his first two seasons at Florida State, and the Seminoles' recruiting operation appears to be lagging behind. Meanwhile, Jeff Scott has just one win against an FBS opponent across two seasons at South Florida (3-18), and Karl Dorrell's Colorado offense fell off a cliff while the program finished 4-8 in 2022.
Below you can see where all 131 FBS coaches stand before the season begins. Check out the ratings key first and see where every coach in college football ranks with kickoff scheduled in less than two months.
| Rating | What it means | Coaches |
|---|---|---|
5 | Win or be fired | 2 |
4 | Start improving now | 6 |
3 | Pressure is mounting | 16 |
2 | All good ... for now | 28 |
1 | Safe and secure | 55 |
0 | Untouchable | 24 |
The table below is arranged in alphabetical order by school. Listed is each coach's win-loss record at his current program and the number of years he's led that team prior to 2022. If the coach has seen his rating change from the 2021 season, the old rating is listed in parenthesis. Asterisks (*) note that games won/lost as an interim coach immediately preceding a full-time hiring are included.
2022 Hot Seat Rankings
| Team | Coach | Years | Record | 2022 Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Calhoun | 15 | 111-75 | 1 (2) | |
| Joe Moorhead | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Nick Saban | 15 | 178-25 | 0 | |
| Shawn Clark | 2 | 20-7* | 1 | |
| Jedd Fisch   | 1 | 1-11 | 3 (2) | |
| Herm Edwards | 4 | 25-18 | 5 (4) | |
| Sam Pittman | 2 | 12-11 | 0 (1) | |
| Butch Jones | 1 | 2-10 | 2 (1) | |
| Jeff Monken | 8 | 58-43 | 1 (0) | |
| Bryan Harsin | 1 | 6-7 | 4 (2) | |
| Mike Neu | 6 | 28-41 | 3 (1) | |
| Dave Aranda | 2 | 14-9 | 0 (2) | |
| Andy Avalos | 1 | 7-5 | 2 (1) | |
| Jeff Hafley | 2 | 12-11 | 1 | |
| Scot Loeffler | 3 | 7-22 | 3 | |
| Mo Linguist | 1 | 4-8 | 2 | |
| Kalani Sitake | 6 | 48-29 | 1 | |
| Justin Wilcox | 5 | 26-28 | 3 (2) | |
| Jim McElwain | 3 | 20-13 | 1 | |
| Will Healy | 3 | 14-17 | 1 | |
| Luke Fickell | 5 | 48-15 | 0 | |
| Dabo Swinney | 13 | 146-33 | 0 | |
| Jamey Chadwell | 4* | 30-19* | 0 | |
| Karl Dorrell | 2 | 8-10 | 3 (1) | |
| Jay Norvell | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Mike Elko | -- | 0-0 | 2 | |
| Mike Houston | 3 | 14-19 | 2 (3) | |
| Chris Creighton | 8 | 37-57 | 2 | |
| Mike MacIntyre | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Billy Napier | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Willie Taggart | 2 | 10-11 | 4 (2) | |
| Mike Norvell | 2 | 8-13 | 3 (1) | |
| Jeff Tedford | -- (3) | 0-0 (26-14) | 0 (1) | |
| Kirby Smart | 6 | 66-15 | 0 | |
| Clay Helton | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Shawn Elliott | 5 | 30-30 | 1 | |
| Geoff Collins | 3 | 9-25 | 4 (2) | |
| Timmy Chang | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Dana Holgorsen | 3 | 19-15 | 1 (3) | |
| Bret Bielema | 1 | 5-7 | 2 (1) | |
| Tom Allen | 5 | 26-32* | 2 (0) | |
| Kirk Ferentz | 23 | 178-110 | 1 (2) | |
| Matt Campbell | 6 | 42-34 | 1 | |
| Curt Cignetti | 3 | 33-5 (FCS) | 0 (n/a) | |
| Lance Leipold | 1 | 2-10 | 1 | |
| Chris Klieman | 3 | 20-16 | 2 (1) | |
| Sean Lewis | 4 | 19-24 | 1 | |
| Mark Stoops | 9 | 59-53 | 1 (2) | |
| Hugh Freeze | 3 | 26-11 | 0 | |
| Michael Desormeaux | -- | 1-0* | 2 | |
| Sonny Cumbie | -- | 0-0 | 0 | |
| Scott Satterfield | 3 | 18-19 | 3 (2) | |
| Brian Kelly | -- | 0-0 | 0 | |
| Charles Huff | 1 | 7-6 | 1 | |
| Mike Locksley | 3 | 13-23 | 2 | |
| Ryan Silverfield | 2 | 14-10* | 1 | |
| Mario Cristobal | -- | 0-0 | 0 | |
| Chuck Martin | 8 | 39-52 | 2 (1) | |
| Jim Harbaugh | 7 | 61-24 | 1 (4) | |
| Mel Tucker | 2 | 13-7 | 0 (2) | |
| Rick Stockstill | 16 | 101-98 | 3 | |
| P.J. Fleck | 5 | 35-23 | 1 | |
| Mike Leach | 2 | 11-13 | 2 | |
| Eliah Drinkwitz | 2 | 11-12 | 2 (1) | |
| Ken Niumatalolo | 14 | 105-75 | 2 (1) | |
| Dave Doeren | 9 | 64-49 | 1 | |
| Scott Frost | 4 | 15-29 | 5 | |
| Ken Wilson | -- | 0-0 | 2 | |
| Danny Gonzales | 2 | 5-14 | 2 (1) | |
| Jerry Kill | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Mack Brown | 3 (13) | 21-17 (90-63-1) | 1 (0) | |
| Seth Littrell | 6 | 37-38 | 3 (2) | |
| Thomas Hammock | 3 | 14-18 | 1 (2) | |
| Pat Fitzgerald | 16 | 109-90 | 0 | |
| Marcus Freeman | -- | 0-1* | 1 | |
| Tim Albin | 1 | 3-9 | 2 | |
| Ryan Day | 3 | 34-4* | 0 | |
| Brent Venables | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Mike Gundy | 17 | 149-69 | 1 (2) | |
| Ricky Rahne | 2 | 6-7 | 1 | |
| Lane Kiffin | 2 | 15-8 | 1 | |
| Dan Lanning | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Jonathan Smith | 4 | 16-28 | 1 | |
| James Franklin | 8 | 67-34 | 1 | |
| Pat Narduzzi | 7 | 53-37 | 1 (2) | |
| Jeff Brohm | 5 | 28-29 | 1 (3) | |
| Mike Bloomgren | 4 | 11-31 | 2 (1) | |
| Greg Schiano | 2 (13) | 8-14 (76-81) | 2 (1) | |
| Brady Hoke | 2 (4) | 16-6 (29-18) | 1 | |
| Brent Brennan | 5 | 20-37 | 2 (0) | |
| Rhett Lashlee | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Kane Wommack | 1 | 5-7 | 1 | |
| Shane Beamer | 1 | 7-6 | 1 (2) | |
| Will Hall | 1 | 3-9 | 1 | |
| Jeff Scott | 2 | 3-18 | 3 (2) | |
| David Shaw | 11 | 93-45 | 1 (0) | |
| Dino Babers | 6 | 29-43 | 4 (3) | |
| Sonny Dykes | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Stan Drayton | -- | 0-0 | 3 | |
| Josh Heupel   | 1 | 7-6 | 1 (2) | |
| Steve Sarkisian | 1 | 5-7 | 1 | |
| Jimbo Fisher | 4 | 34-14 | 0 (1) | |
| Jake Spavital | 3 | 9-27 | 4 (3) | |
| Joey McGuire | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Jason Candle | 7 | 45-27 | 2 | |
| Jon Sumrall | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Willie Fritz | 6 | 31-43 | 3 (2) | |
| Philip Montgomery | 7 | 38-46 | 3 | |
| Bryant Vincent | -- | 0-0 | 2 | |
| Gus Malzahn | 1 | 9-4 | 0 | |
| Chip Kelly | 4 | 18-25 | 2 (3) | |
| Jim Mora Jr. | -- | 0-0 | 3 | |
| Terry Bowden | 1 | 4-8 | 3 (1) | |
| Don Brown | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Marcus Arroyo | 2 | 2-16 | 4 (2) | |
| Lincoln Riley | -- | 0-0 | 0 | |
| Dana Dimel | 4 | 12-33 | 3 (4) | |
| Jeff Traylor | 2 | 19-7 | 0 (1) | |
| Kyle Whittingham | 17 | 144-70* | 0 | |
| Blake Anderson | 1 | 11-3 | 0 (1) | |
| Clark Lea | 1 | 2-10 | 2 (1) | |
| Tony Elliott | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Brent Pry | -- | 0-0 | 2 | |
| Dave Clawson | 8 | 51-48 | 0 (1) | |
| Kalen DeBoer | -- | 0-0 | 1 | |
| Jake Dickert | -- | 3-3* | 1 | |
| Neal Brown | 3 | 17-18 | 2 | |
| Tim Lester | 5 | 32-25 | 1 | |
| Tyson Helton | 3 | 23-16 | 1 (2) | |
| Paul Chryst | 7 | 65-23 | 0 | |
| Craig Bohl | 8 | 45-50 | 2 (1) |
