Air Force won 29 games from 2021 to 2023, but it finds itself at 1-3 heading into its game against Navy (4-0) Saturday afternoon on CBS and Paramount+. The Falcons have lost three straight games since their season opener, falling to Baylor and Wyoming in back-to-back road games. Navy has scored at least 38 points in all four of its games, including a 41-18 win at UAB last week. The Midshipmen have lost five straight road games against the Falcons and four straight meetings overall. In the past 10 years, the Under has hit 89% of the time (25-3-2) in matchups between service academies.
Kickoff is set for noon ET at Falcon Stadium. After opening at -6.5, the Midshipmen are now 9.5-point favorites, per SportsLine consensus, in the latest Air Force vs. Navy odds. The over/under for total points is 37, down 1.5 points from the opener. Before entering any Navy vs. Air Force picks, you'll want to see the college football predictions from the model at SportsLine.
Saturday's game can be seen live on CBS and streamed live on Paramount+, which you can now get for a 7-day free trial. Sign up right here.
The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also went a sizzling 6-0 on all top-rated college football picks in Week 5. Anyone who has followed it has seen strong returns.
The model has set its sights on Navy vs. Air Force. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football betting lines for the spread, money line and over/under:
- Air Force vs. Navy spread: Navy -9.5
- Air Force vs. Navy over/under: 37 points
- Air Force vs. Navy money line: Navy -391, Air Force +300
- Air Force vs. Navy picks: See picks here
- Air Force vs. Navy streaming: Paramount+ (Get seven days free)
Why Air Force can cover
Air Force will be happy to return home following a pair of road games against difficult opponents. The Falcons have not played at home since early September, and they opened the season with a 21-6 win against Merrimack. Their offense is coming off a solid performance, rushing for 207 yards and two touchdowns on 46 carries against Wyoming.
Senior wide receiver Cade Harris had a big outing after missing the previous two games, catching five passes for 106 yards. The Falcons have dominated this head-to-head series in recent seasons, winning five straight home games against Navy. They have also won seven of the last 10 meetings overall. See which team to pick here.
Why Navy can cover
These teams have been trending in opposite directions to open the season, as Navy has covered the spread in three of its first four wins, while Air Force has failed to cover in all four of its games. The Midshipmen were only 4.5-point favorites in their 41-18 win at UAB last week, as junior quarterback Blake Horvath completed 9 of 11 passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns. He leads the most explosive Navy offense in years with 637 passing yards, 450 rushing yards and 15 total touchdowns.
The Midshipmen are averaging a whopping 47.7 points per game, while Air Force is scoring just 10.3 points per game. The Falcons had to replace all five starters on their offensive line and every starter in their offensive backfield entering the season, with five of their top seven rushers departing after last season. Their lack of experience has been a major issue so far this season, and it will be difficult for them to keep pace with Navy's high-scoring attack on Saturday. See which team to pick here.
How to make Air Force vs. Navy picks
The model has simulated Navy vs. Air Force 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Air Force vs. Navy, and which side of the spread is hitting well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Navy vs. Air Force spread to jump on, all from the advanced computer model that's up well over $2,000 on its top-rated college football spread picks since its inception, and find out.