Alabama and Florida played one of college football's most entertaining games in 2020 as the Tide pulled out a 52-46 victory in the SEC Championship Game. Both quarterbacks from that matchup -- Alabama's Mac Jones and Florida's Kyle Trask -- have moved on to the NFL. But both sides return a lot of talent and they'll have a rematch Saturday in the first SEC on CBS game of the season. Bryce Young appears to be settling in well at quarterback for the top-ranked Tide, while it's been more of a shaky start for No. 11 Florida's Emory Jones.
Kickoff at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, better known as The Swamp, is set for 3:30 p.m. ET. Alabama is listed at -14, according to Caesars Sportsbook. The latest Alabama vs. Florida odds list the over-under for total points at 60. Before making any Florida vs. Alabama picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $3,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 3 of the 2021 season on a 67-50 run on all top-rated college football picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Florida vs. Alabama spread: Crimson Tide -14
- Florida vs. Alabama over-under: 60 points
- Florida vs. Alabama money line: Crimson Tide -650, Gators +450
- BAMA: Alabama has covered in 10 of its last 15 games, dating back to last season
- FLA: Florida is 5-8-1 against the spread since the start of 2020
Why Alabama can cover
Young was sensational in his first test of the season -- completing 27 of 38 passes for 344 yards and four touchdowns against a ranked Miami (FL) squad in Week 1. It helps to have what many believe the most talented roster in the nation surrounding him. John Metchie III and Jameson Williams are standing out early in the new-look group of receivers. The Alabama backfield goes four deep with dangerous options.
And after some up-and-down play last year, Nick Saban appears to have his defense locked in again. The starters have given up virtually nothing against Miami and Mercer as those teams combined to score 27 points against Alabama. Only three of those points came in the first half, with the rest coming well after the game was in hand for Alabama.
Why Florida can cover
The Swamp is one of the toughest places in the nation to play, and it's very rare for Florida to get this many points at home. In fact, this spread makes Florida the biggest underdog it has been in Gainesville since 2013. Florida certainly has looked shaky at times in its first two games, but the Gators also have the talent level to keep this one competitive.
Emory Jones will remain the starting quarterback for Florida, per coach Dan Mullen. But the Gators might have an x-factor in backup Anthony Richardson, who has provided a spark in both Florida games thus far. He is dealing with a hamstring injury, but if he can go, he's the type player who could come in and give even Alabama's vaunted defense some troubles.
How to make Florida vs. Alabama picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 61 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Alabama vs. Florida? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.