The top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide will see how their new-look roster is shaping up on Saturday when they take on the No. 14 Miami (FL) Hurricanes in Atlanta. The defending national champions had six players chosen in the first round of the NFL draft in April, including quarterback Mac Jones and Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith. But coach Nick Saban has his usual array of five-star recruits, including new signal-caller Bryce Young, and has not lost a season opener as Tide coach. Miami will count on quarterback D'Eriq King and experience on both sides of the ball to try for the upset.
Kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium is set for 3:30 p.m. ET. The Crimson Tide are the 19.5-point favorites in Caesars Sportsbook's latest Alabama vs. Miami odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 615.. Before making any Miami vs. Alabama picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of more than $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 1 of the 2021 season on a 57-37 run on all top-rated college football picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Alabama vs. Miami: Crimson Tide -19.5
- Alabama vs. Miami over-under: 61.5 points
- Alabama vs. Miami moneyline: Crimson Tide -1100, Hurricanes +700
- BAMA: The Tide haven't lost a season opener since 2001 (20-17 to UCLA).
- MIA: The Canes are 1-5 ATS when listed as more than a 16.5-point underdog.
Why Alabama can cover
Alabama is 14-0 straight-up and 12-2 against the spread in openers under Saban, and the coach never has a problem restocking his units. Young is expected to be the next star after throwing for 156 yards in mop-up duty last season, and John Metchie III will step up as the top receiver. The junior Metchie had more than 900 yards and six TDs last season in Smith's shadow. Najee Harris also moved on to the NFL, but Brian Robinson Jr. averaged 5.3 yards per carry last season and leads a bevy of top running back recruits who were just waiting their turn.
The Tide averaged 48.6 points last season and has scored at least 30 in 26 straight games The Miami defense allowed 27 points per game (51st in FBS) last season, allowing 30 or more five times, while Bama gave up less than 20 (13th). The Tide defense could be one of the best in the nation this season, and its linebacking corps has four NFL prospects who should be able to contain King. The quarterback led the team in attempts and was second in rushing last season, so he will be forced to throw this week. Miami is 3-11 ATS in its past 14 at a neutral site.
Why Miami can cover
Miami is 4-2 against the spread as an underdog since coach Manny Diaz took over in 2019, and the team has 19 starters back from the team that started last season 8-1. The Canes will try to take advantage of the inexperienced Young and pressure him with what is expected to be one of the best pass rushes in the ACC. Linebacker Bradley Jennings Jr. had three sacks last season and will be one of the leaders on defense. Diaz is taking over play-calling and will rely on Jennings and safety Bubba Bolden, who forced four fumbles last season, to make big plays.
The Hurricanes offense revolves around King, and he is a playmaker who doesn't make mistakes. He was No. 2 on the team in rushing in 2020 and threw for 2,686 yards and 27 touchdowns. He has 108 TDs and just 15 interceptions in his college career. He has a top receiving option in Michael Harley (799 yards, seven TDs), and former Oklahoma star Charleston Rambo gives him another big target. Running back Cam'Ron Harris, who averaged 5.1 yards per carry and scored 10 TDs last season, should play a huge role to open up the pass.
How to make Miami vs. Alabama picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 58 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Alabama vs. Miami? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.