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The second-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide may have lost one of their most potent offensive weapons last week when receiver Jaylen Waddle (ankle) went down, but the Crimson Tide remain unbeaten heading into Saturday's SEC game against visiting Mississippi State. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama is 5-0 and and 2-0 at home, while Mississippi State is 1-3 overall and 1-1 on the road. The home team is 7-3 against the spread in Alabama-Mississippi State series.

The Crimson Tide are favored by 31 points in the latest Alabama vs. Mississippi State odds from William Hill, down a point from the opening line. The over-under for total points expected is set at 63.5. Before making any Mississippi State vs. Alabama picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of nearly $4,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It is a sizzling 29-19 on top-rated picks through eight weeks of the 2020 college football season, returning nearly $500 in profit already. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mississippi State vs. Alabama. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college football odds from William Hill and trends for Alabama vs. Mississippi State:

  • Alabama vs. Mississippi State spread: Alabama -31
  • Alabama vs. Mississippi State over-under: 63.5 points
  • Alabama vs. Mississippi State money line: Alabama -6000, MSU +1600
  • MSU: The last Bulldogs win against Alabama was at home, 17-12, in November 2007.
  • BAMA: The Crimson Tide have defeated 94 consecutive unranked teams under head coach Nick Saban, the longest streak in FBS history.

Why Mississippi State can cover

The Bulldogs have lost three straight, but earned their lone win of 2020 on the road by upsetting then-No. 6 LSU 44-34 to start the season. Quarterback K.J. Costello has thrown for 1,267 yards and six touchdowns, but has also been intercepted 10 times. Backup quarterback Will Rogers could see more action this week. 

The Bulldogs are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home. Mississippi State leads the SEC in total defense, allowing 295.5 yards per game. The Bulldogs are outstanding in defending the run, giving up just 103.3 yards on the ground per outing.

Why Alabama can cover

The Crimson Tide lost Waddle for the season to a broken ankle on the opening kickoff last week against Tennessee, but barely missed a beat, still rolling the Volunteers 48-17. It was Alabama's 14th straight win against Tennessee, and the Crimson Tide's 94th straight victory against an unranked team under coach Nick Saban, the longest streak in FBS history.

Quarterback Mac Jones has thrown for 1,905 yards and 12 touchdowns against two interceptions. Running back Najee Harris has rushed for 595 yards on 103 carries and scored 14 rushing touchdowns this season, a new Alabama football record through the first five games of a season. Harris has a rushing touchdown in 12 straight games dating back to the Oct. 19, 2019. In those 12 games, Harris has 26 rushing TDs and two or more TDs in eight.games.

How to make Alabama vs. Mississippi State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total as the simulations predict that the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide combine to score 58 points. It also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine

So who wins Mississippi State vs. Alabama? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Alabama vs. Mississippi State spread to back, all from the advanced model that is up almost $4,000 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.