There could be fireworks in South Florida on Monday when the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide face the No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes in the College Football Playoff National Championship. The teams come in with two of the nation's top offenses, averaging more than 90 points and 1,000 yards combined. The Crimson Tide (12-0) will go for their sixth national title under Nick Saban behind an offense led by quarterback Mac Jones and Heisman-winning receiver DeVonta Smith. The Buckeyes (7-0) are seeking their third title since 2002 and are led by quarterback Justin FIelds.
Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET. The Crimson Tide are nine-point favorites in the latest Alabama vs. Ohio State odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 75. Before entering any Ohio State vs. Alabama picks, you'll want to see the latest college football predictions and betting advice from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $3,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It entered the final week of bowl season a sizzling 56-36 on all top-rated picks, returning over $400. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Ohio State vs. Alabama: Crimson Tide -9
- Ohio State vs. Alabama over-under: 75
- Ohio State vs. Alabama money line: Buckeyes +250; Crimson Tide -300
- Ohio State: RB Trey Sermon has 636 of his 868 rushing yards over the past three games
- Alabama: WR DeVonta Smith had at least 130 receiving yards eight times this season
Why Alabama can cover
Alabama is 7-1 against the spread in its last eight games against Big Ten teams and won all but one game this season by double-digits. The lone close call was a 52-46 win against Florida in an SEC title game it led by 17 at halftime. Jones ranks second in the nation in passing yards (4,036) and TD passes (36) and has thrown just four interceptions. Smith led the nation in receiving with 1,641 yards, almost 450 more than any other player, and scored 20 touchdowns.
The Tide also have major weapons in receiver John Metchie (17.8 yards per catch) and running back Najee Harris (1,733 total yards, 27 TDs). Alabama is 7-2 against the spread in its last nine games, while the defense allows fewer than 20 points per game.
Why Ohio State can cover
Ohio State is 19-7 against the spread in its last 26 games as an underdog, and it just cruised to a 49-28 victory against Clemson in the semifinal as a seven-point underdog. Fields threw for 385 yards and six touchdowns against a top-five Tigers defense, while running back Trey Sermon had 254 total yards. Receivers Christian Olave, who had 132 yards and two TDs in the semifinal, and Garrett Wilson, who averaged nearly 17 yards per reception, have combined to score 12 times this season.
The Buckeyes are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight bowl games, and the defense allows just 21 points per game. Jonathon Cooper (3.5 sacks), Tommy Togiai (three) and Haskell Garrett (two) apply the pressure for a unit that has 18 takeaways and 19 sacks in the seven games.
All-Big Ten linebacker Pete Werner has a sack and two forced fumbles and will provide the emotional spark the defense needs.
How to make Alabama vs. Ohio State picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, suggesting sacks and takeaways will play a major role. It also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick here.
So who wins Ohio State vs. Alabama in the 2021 College Football National Championship Game? And which side of the spread hits more than half the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Alabama vs. Ohio State spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 56-36 roll on college football picks, and find out.