The Tennessee Volunteers hope to spring a major upset on their home turf on Saturday afternoon when they host the second-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide in an SEC cross-division matchup. The Vols (2-2) are trying to rebound after a disheartening 34-7 loss to Kentucky last week, and they are in the midst of a quarterback controversy. But they can run the ball and will try to control an Alabama offense that ranks fifth in the nation. The Tide routed Georgia 41-24 last week and are well on their way to another playoff appearance.
Kickoff from Neyland Stadium is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS. The Crimson Tide are 21.5-point favorites in the latest Alabama vs. Tennessee odds from William Hill, while the over-under for total points scored is 66. Before making any Tennessee vs. Alabama picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $4,100 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It is a sizzling 25-13 on top-rated picks through seven weeks of the 2020 college football season, returning over $700 in profit already. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Alabama vs. Tennessee spread: Crimson Tide -21.5
- Alabama vs. Tennessee over-under: 66
- Alabama vs. Tennessee money line: Crimson Tide -1600, Volunteers +900
- ALA: WR Jaylen Waddle has a reception of at least 45 yards in each game this season.
- TENN: RB Eric Gray averages 5.7 yards per touch and 109 total yards per game.
Why Alabama can cover
Alabama is 6-2 against the spread in its past eight games in October, and quarterback Mac Jones has the Tide offense humming. He has passed for 1,518 yards and 12 touchdowns, hitting on more than 78 percent of his passes, ranking second in the nation. He has three of the top 25 targets in the country in terms of receiving yardage, led by Jaylen Waddle, who ranks fourth with 557 yards. Devonta Smith is eighth with 483 yards, while John Metchie III is 24th with 348.
The Crimson Tide are 12-9 ATS as road favorites since 2015, and they also can grind out yardage on the ground. They average 168.3 rushing per game, led by Najee Harris, who is putting up 124.8 per contest. The defense has given up points, but Alabama has faced two high-powered teams in Georgia and Texas A&M, and the Volunteers rank 67th in FBS in total offense (329.3 yards per game). The defense has seven takeaways, while the Vols have given the ball away seven times.
Why Tennessee can cover
Tennessee is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games as an underdog, and the Vols rank 28th in the nation in passing yards allowed (213.3 per game). Sophomore linebacker Henry To'o To'o has a team-high 31 tackles, a sack and an interception, and Deandre Johnson has 3.5 sacks and a forced fumble.
The Vols have bounced back well from double-digit home losses, going 4-1 ATS in their last five games after being routed. They average 135 rushing yards per game, led by Eric Gray with 298 yards and Ty Chandler with 238. Gray also gets involved in the passing game, catching 13 passes for 118 yards. Wideouts Josh Palmer (238 yards) and Brandon Johnson (155) can make big plays, and quarterback Jarrett Guarantano will need to avoid mistakes if he gets the start.
How to make Alabama vs. Tennessee picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with the model suggesting both teams will struggle to move the ball on the ground. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in well over 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Tennessee vs. Alabama? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Alabama vs. Tennessee spread to back, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,100 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.