The No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide and the South Florida Bulls meet in a non-conference tilt on Saturday. Alabama won the only previous matchup between the programs in 2003, and Raymond James Stadium will host the game in Tampa. Alabama is 1-1 this season after a 34-24 loss to Texas a week ago, and the Crimson Tide were 11-2 in 2022. USF is also 1-1 to begin the 2023 season under new head coach Alex Golesh, with a comfortable win over Florida A&M last week. Alabama will reportedly turn to Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner at quarterback after Jalen Milroe started the first two games of the season.

SportsLine consensus lists the Crimson Tide as 34-point favorites for this 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 61 in the latest Alabama vs. South Florida odds. Before making any USF vs. Alabama picks, you need to see the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed the model has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Alabama vs. USF and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for USF vs. Alabama:

  • Alabama vs. South Florida spread: Alabama -34
  • Alabama vs. South Florida over/under: 61 points
  • Alabama vs. South Florida money line: Alabama -10000, USF +2500
  • Alabama: The Crimson Tide are 7-7-1 against the spread since the start of 2022
  • USF: The Bulls are 5-9 against the spread since the start of 2022
  • Alabama vs. South Florida picks: See picks at SportsLine
  • Alabama vs. South Florida live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why Alabama can cover

Alabama is long-established as an upper-tier program in the college football world, and the Crimson Tide are facing a South Florida program that has wobbled in the recent past. The Bulls picked up a win last week against Florida A&M, but South Florida is on a 17-game losing streak against FBS opponents. USF is just 1-34 in the last 35 games against FBS schools, and the Bulls had arguably the worst defense in the country in 2022. The Bulls gave up more total yards (516.6 per game) than any FBS program last season, and USF allowed 41.2 points per game. 

Opponents completed 73% of passes, averaging 9.0 yards per attempt in 2022, and USF also yielded 6.1 yards per rush attempt. So far in 2023, the Bulls have given up 355.0 passing yards per game, including 8.6 yards per pass attempt, opening up a path for success as Buchner makes his first start. On the other side, Alabama consistently brings elite-tier talent to the table, and the Crimson Tide have an intriguing X-factor on special teams. Not only are the Crimson Tide athletic and deep up and down the roster, but Alabama is also leading FBS with 50.3 net yards per punt this season. See which team to pick here.

Why South Florida can cover

South Florida's defense has been active to start the 2023 season. The Bulls generated five takeaways in last week's win, the most for the program since 2019, and opposing offenses are averaging only 74.0 rushing yards per game and 2.8 yards per rush attempt in 2023. On the other side, Alabama has struggled by traditional standards on the ground, with only 4.2 yards per carry this season and 3.1 yards per carry against Texas. 

On offense, quarterback Byrum Brown leads the approach with eight total touchdowns, a figure that also leads the AAC through two games. Brown is No. 2 in the AAC with 183 rushing yards this season, and he keys a group that is averaging 31.0 points per game in 2023. South Florida leads the AAC with 241.0 rushing yards per game, leading to well over 400 total yards per game, and Alabama yielded 454 yards to Texas a week ago. The Crimson Tide also committed 10 costly penalties and gave up 9.2 yards per pass attempt to the Longhorns in that loss. See which team to pick here.

How to make Alabama vs. USF picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 73 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations. You can see the model's picks at SportsLine

So who wins South Florida vs. Alabama, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has notched a profit of almost $2,500 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.