The Appalachian State Mountaineers will try to slow down the high-powered Arkansas State Red Wolves when the teams square off Thursday night in a Sun Belt Conference game. The Mountaineers (2-1) are playing their first conference game after having two games postponed because of a coronavirus outbreak in the program. They last played Sept. 26, beating FCS Campbell 52-21 behind more than 400 yards rushing. The Red Wolves (3-2, 1-1) have the No. 3 passing attack in FBS at more than 384 yards per game, while the Mountaineers counter with the fifth-best rushing game at more than 269. 

Kickoff from Boone, N.C. is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. William Hill lists the Mountaineers as 13.5-point favorites in the latest Appalachian State vs. Arkansas State odds, with the over-under for total points scored at 66.5. Before making any Arkansas State vs. Appalachian State picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $4,100 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It is a sizzling 25-13 on top-rated picks through seven weeks of the 2020 college football season, returning over $700 in profit already. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on App State vs. Arkansas State. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college football odds from William Hill and trends for Arkansas State vs. App State:

  • Appalachian State vs. Arkansas State spread: Mountaineers -13.5
  • Appalachian State vs. Arkansas State over-under: 67
  • Appalachian State vs. Arkansas State money line: Red Wolves +380, Mountaineers -475
  • Arkansas State: WR Jonathan Adams has six catches or more in all five games.
  • Appalachian State: WR Thomas Hennigan has a reception of at least 35 yards in all three games. 

Why Appalachian State can cover

Appalachian State is 6-3 against the spread in Sun Belt games the past two seasons, and the offense and defense both rank 15th in the nation in total yards. The defense allows 321 yards and 19.3 points per game and has three takeaways in the three games. All-conference end Demetrius Taylor gets pressure, while preseason All-American Shaun Jolly and Shemar Jean-Charles (eight passes defended) at corner and Kaiden Smith (interception) at safety form a formidable secondary.

The unit also has four sacks, and that number could increase against the Red Wolves, who have allowed 14. Arkansas State also is 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing more than 40 points in its previous game, and the Mountaineers average more than 31 points per game. The running game has been the catalyst so far, averaging 269 yards per game, but quarterback Zac Thomas threw 28 TD passes last year, and receiver Thomas Hennigan had 61 catches.  

Why Arkansas State can cover

Arkansas State is 3-1 against the spread in its last four as a road underdog, and the Red Wolves have two top-notch quarterbacks who share time. Logan Bonner topped 1,000 yards and had 10 TD passes through four games last season before needing thumb surgery. Freshman Layne Hatcher came on and threw for almost 3,000 yards and 27 TDs. They have combined for 1,834 yards and 21 scores through five games while platooning.

The Red Wolves are 8-5 ATS with the rest disadvantage since 2017, and the offense has talent beyond just the quarterbacks. Running back Jamal Jones has rushed for 253 yards, and the unit has two top-notch receivers. Jonathan Adams is sixth in the nation with 539 receiving yards and has scored seven times, while Dahu Green ranks 17th with 419 yards and has five TDs. The defense gives up big yardage, but it has forced eight turnovers and has recorded seven sacks. 

How to make Appalachian State vs. Arkansas State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with the model suggesting the teams will combine for fewer than 60 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine

So who wins Arkansas State vs. Appalachian State? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Appalachian State vs. Arkansas State spread to back, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,100 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.