Baylor vs. Texas odds, line: 2018 college football picks, predictions from expert who's 8-0 on Longhorns, Bears games

No. 9 Texas enters Week 7 of the college football season with renewed national championship aspirations, but the Longhorns will need to prove they can play at a high level on a weekly basis in the Big 12 to get there. They'll have a chance to do just that Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET when Baylor, off to a strong 4-2 start, comes to Austin. After opening as 16-point favorites, the Longhorns are now -14 in the latest Texas vs. Baylor odds. The over-under, meanwhile, has fallen from 61 to 60.5. Before you make any Texas vs. Baylor picks, you'll want to see what SportsLine college football handicapper Josh Nagel has to say.

A Nevada-based expert with 20 years of experience in the sports wagering industry, Nagel specializes in handicapping college athletics. He's having another solid season in college football, entering Week 7 on an 18-13 run on his college football picks. Moreover, he has had a keen eye for the tendencies of these two programs, hitting a whopping eight straight picks in games involving Texas or Baylor.

Look no further than last week's Red River Showdown to see Nagel's expertise. He confidently locked in a pick for Texas (+8), saying there was value on the Longhorns as an underdog in that rivalry matchup. The result: Texas pulled out a 48-45 upset, and anybody who followed Nagel's advice got a huge cash. 

Now, Nagel has scrutinized Texas vs. Baylor from every possible angle to reveal a strong point-spread pick that he's sharing only at SportsLine. 

He has taken Texas' undeniable momentum into account. After a shocking loss to Maryland in the season-opener, Tom Herman has shown huge strides in Year 2, leading the Longhorns to wins over USC, TCU and Oklahoma, all ranked teams at the time.

Dual-threat quarterback Sam Ehlinger has been the catalyst for Texas. He's completing 65.3 percent of his passes for 1,499 yards, 11 touchdowns and two interceptions this season and is also the team's third-leading rusher. His emergence under center has given Texas the stability needed to contend in the Big 12.

But there's no guarantee the Longhorns will continue to roll with an improved Baylor team coming to town.

After a disastrous 1-11 record in 2017, the Bears have quietly begun to turn it around under second-year coach Matt Rhule. Though lacking a signature victory to this point, Baylor is off to a 4-2 start with a 2-1 mark in Big 12 play.

Quarterback Charlie Brewer has matched Ehlinger's productivity in many categories and has an impressive group of receivers to throw to, including converted running back and Tennessee transfer Jalen Hurd (42-550-3).

We can tell you Nagel is leaning toward the under, but he has also unearthed the crucial x-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back. He's only sharing it at SportsLine. 

Who covers in Baylor vs. Texas? And what crucial x-factor makes one side of the spread hit hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump all over Saturday, all from the expert who's on a blistering 8-0 run on his Texas and Baylor picks

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