The 2018 Texas Bowl features two schools that exceeded preseason projections. The Vanderbilt Commodores and Baylor Bears won't take the opportunity for granted when they meet on Thursday at NRG Stadium in Houston, with kickoff scheduled for 9 p.m. ET. Baylor (6-6) is back in a bowl just two years removed from the scandal-plagued Art Briles era that left the program in shambles. Meanwhile, the Commodores (6-6) seek their first bowl victory since the 2014 Compass Bowl. Vanderbilt is a four-point favorite in the latest 2018 Texas Bowl odds after the line opened at -6. The over-under for total points scored is 56.5, up from an open of 55. Before you lock in your Vanderbilt vs. Baylor picks and Texas Bowl predictions, listen to what SportsLine senior analyst Josh Nagel has to say.

A Nevada-based expert with more than 20 years of experience in the sports wagering industry, Nagel specializes in handicapping college athletics. He has had another strong year, hitting 61 percent of his spread selections for SportsLine members. He headed into bowl season on a strong 20-6 run on against the spread picks. What's more, he has had a keen eye for the tendencies of these programs and boasts a stellar record of 9-2 on picks involving Baylor or Vandy. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

In Week 11, Nagel advised SportsLine members that TCU (+1) would have an edge because of its defense when it visited Baylor in a battle of clubs fighting to become bowl-eligible. The Horned Frogs forced three turnovers in their 16-9 victory, and anyone who followed Nagel's advice booked another winner.

Now, he has analyzed the latest 2018 Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl odds and released a confident point-spread selection that is only available at SportsLine.

Nagel knows the Commodores rely on fundamentally sound play and their turnover margin ranks No. 17 in the country. They have given the ball away just 13 times and won the turnover battle the last seven games. The Commodores also committed the fewest penalties in the SEC, with just 68 flags for 45 yards per game. 

Their defense stiffened up as the season wore on, allowing fewer than 34 points in each of the last five contests. Only Georgia (41), South Carolina (37) and Florida (37) scored more than 35 against Vanderbilt this season. Baylor only scored more than 35 against clubs that didn't go bowling. And Vandy is 8-3 against the spread versus FBS teams this season, compared to 5-5 for Baylor.

Despite their strong numbers, the Commodores will need to be in top form to cover the Texas Bowl spread against an upstart Baylor club that has proven to be dangerous as an underdog.

Although the Bears still lack depth as they look to restore stability to the program, their playmakers consistently produced on the offensive end. They pulled home upsets of high-powered Big 12 foes Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, the latter earning them a bowl bid. They also fell just short of an upset at Texas as a two-touchdown underdog.

Baylor racked up 478 yards of total offense in its 35-24 win over the Red Raiders in the regular-season finale. Sophomore quarterback Charlie Brewer threw for 308 yards with three touchdowns. John Lovett rushed for 125 yards on 28 carries with a score.

We can tell you Nagel is leaning to the under, but his much stronger play is on the spread. He has unearthed a critical X-factor that causes one side of the spread to hit hard. He's only sharing what it is, and who to back, at SportsLine.

Who covers Baylor vs. Vanderbilt? And what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump all over in the Texas Bowl, all from the senior analyst who's 9-2 on his picks involving these teams.