The New Mexico Lobos host the Boise State Broncos on Friday night in Albuquerque as the teams kick off their Mountain West Conference college football slates in Week 2. The Broncos were the preseason pick to win the MWC's Mountain Division, while the Lobos were tabbed to finish last. But after one week, Boise State has serious question marks – and a quarterback controversy – while the Lobos are relishing a convincing victory. New Mexico faced an FCS foe to kick off its season, and it looked impressive in a 41-0 rout of Maine. Despite the Black Bears' FCS status, the outburst was notable for the Lobos, who had the worst offense in FBS last season. The Broncos' offense wasn't nearly as dialed in Saturday in its opener against Oregon State, as it turned the ball over five times in a 34-17 loss. Boise State has won 11 of the 12 all-time meetings between these teams, including a 37-0 home rout last November.
Kickoff at University Stadium is set for 9 p.m. ET. The Broncos are 16.5-point favorites in Caesars Sportsbook's latest Boise State vs. New Mexico odds, and the Over/Under for total points scored is 44. Before locking in New Mexico vs. Boise State picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It enters Week 2 of the 2022 college football season on a 48-37 run on all top-rated college football spread and money-line picks that dates back to 2021. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has locked in on Boise State vs. New Mexico and just revealed its picks and CFB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college football odds and betting lines for New Mexico vs. Boise State:
- Boise State vs. New Mexico spread: Broncos -17.5
- Boise State vs. New Mexico over/under: 44 points
- Boise State vs. New Mexico money line: Broncos -800, Lobos +550
- BSU: It was 7-5 ATS last season, going 5-1 on the road
- NM: It was 1-11 ATS in 2021, including 0-6 at home
- Boise State vs. New Mexico picks: See picks here.
Why Boise State can cover
Boise State is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with the Lobos and won all five straight-up. It won four of those by at least 28 points, the exception being a 14-point victory in 2017. Senior quarterback Hank Bachmeier was expected to be a key part of the team's success, but he struggled mightily against the Beavers. He threw two interceptions and lost a fumble before being benched in the second quarter. Redshirt freshman Taylen Green replaced him and threw for 155 yards and rushed for 102, including a jaw-dropping 74-yard run late in the third quarter.
The defense also had its issues in the opener, allowing 470 yards, Boise State won't be pushed around like Maine was. The Lobos managed just 102 yards in November's meeting, and the Broncos will be confident they can continue their success in this series. George Holani rushed for 114 yards in last year's game, and he averaged 4.8 yards per carry last season. He should bounce back after rushing for 9 yards on 13 carries last week. New Mexico QB Miles Kendrick threw two interceptions last week, so a Broncos defense that had 23 takeaways could rattle him.
Why New Mexico can cover
New Mexico got major contributions from several newcomers as they dominated Maine last weekend. The Lobos piled up 437 yards, including 267 on the ground, while allowing just 118. Kansas transfer Miles Kendrick shined at quarterback, completing 14 of his 17 throws for 170 yards and rushing for another 40. He was one of eight Lobos to rush for at least 20, with junior college transfer Sherod White leading the way with 58 and two touchdowns on 13 carries. Arizona State transfer Geordon Porter was the top receiver with five catches for 54 yards and a touchdown.
Speedy freshman receiver Jah'Mar Sanders also made an impact with two rushes for 25 yards and a TD. Sophomore Luke Wysong was a force all over the field, rushing for 43 yards and catching three balls for 51 while also returning punts. The Lobos defense, led by respected coordinator Rocky Long, is built around a solid linebacking trio of Reco Hannah, Ray Leutele and Syaire Riley. Hannah had 1.5 sacks last week in his first action since a serious knee injury suffered last season. The unit forced two turnovers and had three sacks in last week's victory.
How to make Boise State vs. New Mexico picks
The model has simulated the New Mexico vs. Boise State matchup 10,000 times, and the results are in. The model is projecting Over on the point total, suggesting one team could benefit from several turnovers. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see the model's New Mexico vs. Boise State pick at SportsLine.
So who wins the New Mexico vs. Boise State matchup on Friday night? And which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Boise State vs. New Mexico spread to back Friday, all from the advanced model on a 48-37 run on its top-rated college football picks, and find out.
