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The Boise State Broncos and Utah State Aggies have been two of the most successful programs in the Mountain West since the turn of the century, and on Saturday they'll renew their rivalry. The Broncos have won five games in a row over Utah State and now hold a 20-5 all-time advantage in the series. However, Boise State is 1-2 on the season with tight losses to UCF and Oklahoma State, while Utah State is a perfect 3-0.

Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET on Saturday at Maverik Stadium on CBS. The Broncos are the 9.5-point favorites with the over-under for total points at 69.5 in the latest Boise State vs. Utah State odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before making any Utah State vs. Boise State picks, make sure you see the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 4 of the 2021 season on a 72-58 run on all top-rated college football picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Boise State vs. Utah State. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college football odds and trends for Utah State vs. Boise State:

  • Boise State vs. Utah State spread: Boise State -9.5
  • Boise State vs. Utah State over-under: 69.5 points
  • Boise State vs. Utah State money line: Boise State -360, Utah State +285
  • BST: The Broncos are 5-0 straight up in their last five games against the Aggies
  • UTST: The Aggies are 4-1 against the spread in their previous five games
Featured Game | Utah State Aggies vs. Boise State Broncos

Why Boise State can cover

Boise State's 1-2 record matches its record against the spread so far. The Broncos covered in their opening loss to UCF before failing to in Weeks 2 and 3. History is on their side this weekend, though. Boise State has had Utah State's number in recent years.

The Broncos have covered the spread in seven of their previous 10 games against Utah State. Boise State won eight of those matchups by double-digits. The favorites have a clear edge given their 17-3 record against the underdogs in the all-time series. 

Why Utah State can cover

The Aggies are a perfect 3-0 both straight up and against the spread and they're coming off a thrilling 49-45 win over Air Force last week. Both teams piled up over 600 yards of total offense with Utah State winning the battle 628-619. The Aggies came back from an 11-point deficit with under 11 minutes remaining to secure the win.

Andrew Peasley took over for an injured Logan Bonner and found Deven Thompkins for a 72-yard touchdown strike to cut the deficit to three points before Calvin Tyler Jr. struck pay dirt on a 61-yard touchdown run with less than four minutes remaining to win the game. Tyler rushed for 132 yards and two scores in the victory and he'll be a key part of the gameplan against a Boise State defense allowing 201.7 yards per game this season.

How to make Utah State vs. Boise State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting 61 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine

So who wins Utah State vs. Boise State? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.