It has been another positive week for Cincinnati in its quest to become the first Group of Five team to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff. And as always, a "good week" for the Bearcats has almost nothing to do with their own games.
No, the good news for Cincinnati this week comes in the form of a loss by Oklahoma at the hands of Baylor. That knocked the Sooners from the ranks of the unbeaten and guaranteed that the Big 12 will not have an undefeated champion.
It's also one more obstacle removed from Cincinnati's path to glory.
Oklahoma is no longer projected into the College Football Playoff. The Sooners are replaced by Alabama, which is now projected as the first two-loss team to earn a CFP spot in event history. The Crimson Tide enter as the No. 4 seed.
Oklahoma remains the other candidate for the final spot, however, as it is still projected to finish 12-1 and win the Big 12. But as we have learned this season, the CFP Selection Committee loves Alabama, which it currently has ranked No. 2.
The Crimson Tide are projected to win out through the regular season before losing to No. 1 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Those two would then rematch in a CFP semifinal at the Orange Bowl.
Ohio State is now projected as the No. 2 seed with the Buckeyes expected to finish 12-1 as the Big Ten champions. Cincinnati, previously in as the No. 4 seed, moves one spot to No. 3 where it will face its in-state rivals in the Cotton Bowl semifinal.
College Football Playoff
Date | Game / Loc. | Matchup | Prediction |
---|---|---|---|
Jan. 10 | National Championship | Title game | Semifinal winners |
Dec. 31 | Orange Bowl | Semifinal | (1) Georgia vs. (4) Alabama |
Dec. 31 | Cotton Bowl | Semifinal | (2) Ohio State vs. (3) Cincinnati |
Oregon remains the projected Pac-12 champion, but it's expected to hold an 11-2 record with another loss to come before the end of the regular season. Oklahoma State is projected to lose at least once to Oklahoma (a Big 12 Championship Game rematch is not assured), while both Michigan and Michigan State are projected to fall to Ohio State later this month.
While the teams projected for the New Year's Six bowls have not changed from last week, the matchups are different due to the CFP adjustments.
Oklahoma is now in the Sugar Bowl against SEC representative Ole Miss. Michigan takes over the Rose Bowl spot from Michigan State, since there does not seem to be any reason to believe the head-to-head result will suddenly start mattering to the CFP Selection Committee. The Wolverines would face Oregon, the only team in last week's New Year's Six projections to be in the same bowl this week. The Spartans are now projected to the Fiesta Bowl against Oklahoma State, which was displaced from the Sugar Bowl by Oklahoma. Notre Dame and projected ACC champion Pittsburgh are now slated for the Peach Bowl instead of the Fiesta Bowl.
New Year's Six bowl games
Date | Bowl / Location | Matchup | Prediction |
---|---|---|---|
Jan. 1 | Sugar | SEC vs. Big 12 | Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma |
Jan. 1 | Rose | Big Ten vs. Pac-12 | Michigan vs. Oregon |
Jan. 1 | Fiesta | At-large vs. At-large | Michigan State vs. Oklahoma State |
Dec. 30 | Peach | At-large vs. At-large | Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh |
Conference championship game matchups are starting to gain clarity. Georgia clinched its spot in the SEC Championship Game a few weeks ago, and Alabama can win the SEC West with a victory over Arkansas next week. The Pac-12 Championship Game matchup could be settled next week when Oregon travels to Utah in a meeting of division leaders with Oregon State hosting Arizona State in a battle of the current second-place teams in each division. If those games are won by teams in the same division, Oregon and Utah will each clinch spots; otherwise, the winner of the Ducks and Utes is in and the other still has work to do.
Houston secured a spot in the AAC Championship Game with a win at Temple, while Cincinnati can clinch its spot in that game by beating SMU next week. Louisiana clinched a spot in the Sun Belt title game long ago. Appalachian State locks up its place with a win next week thanks to a loss by Coastal Carolina to Georgia State on Saturday.
There are three teams in this week's bowl projections that are expected to be 5-7. Those are Rutgers, Illinois and Missouri. Hawaii had been on this list for most of the season but dropped off after losing to UNLV on Saturday.
Don't see your team? Check out the rest of Jerry Palm's updated bowl projections.