College bowl confidence pool odds 2018: Picks and best predictions from expert on 20-6 roll

College football fans have plenty of difficult decisions to make this holiday season when filling out their bowl confidence pools. There are a whopping 39 bowl games spread out over three weeks, which means there are 78 teams to evaluate. These aren't all high-profile programs like Alabama and Ohio State. Instead, you also need to figure out how much faith you have in teams like Appalachian State and Toledo. The popular end-of-season contest requires fans to pick each game on the 2018-19 college football bowl schedule and assign a confidence rating, with No. 39 being the most confident and No. 1 going to the least-confident pick. The object is to get as many points as possible. Before locking in your college football bowl picks, you'll want to see what SportsLine's senior analyst Josh Nagel has to say.

Before you lock in your college football bowl picks for confidence pools, listen to what SportsLine senior analyst Josh Nagel has to say. Nagel is noted for specializing in college athletics, and his football handicapping has been on point this season. The Nevada-based expert has hit 60 percent of his point-spread picks this season, and enters the bowl season on an impressive 20-6 run. Those picks include providing SportsLine members with point-spread winners for the Pac-12, SEC and Big 12 title games during championship weekend. Anyone who has followed him is way up. 

Now, he's using a season's worth of data gathered from game film, analytics and his strong feel for the game. He has analyzed each bowl matchup and ordered every game by level of confidence. He's only sharing his final picks over at SportsLine. 

One surprise we'll give away: Nagel likes Iowa State to topple Washington State outright as a four-point underdog in the 2018 Alamo Bowl. He has assigned 27 confidence points to that selection. 

"Washington State coach Mike Leach apparently doesn't like working overtime, as he has lost three of his four bowls with the Cougars, and now he's preoccupied with complaining about the ranking system," Nagel told SportsLine. "Iowa State plays the type of gritty style that is a nightmare for the finesse Cougars. The Cyclones win outright." 

Meanwhile, he's assigning 24 points to TCU knocking off California in the 2018 Cheez-It Bowl. Vegas views this game as even, with the line currently going off as a pick'em.

Nagel knows Cal finished the season on a high-note, winning four of its last six games to become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2015. Meanwhile, TCU won its final two contests to become bowl-eligible for the fifth straight season. Despite both teams entering the Cheez-It Bowl 2018 with plenty of confidence, Nagel believes TCU will earn its fourth bowl victory in the last five years under head coach Gary Patterson. 

"The Frogs had to fight like crazy just to become bowl-eligible in an otherwise disastrous season," Nagel told SportsLine. "Look for TCU to finish on a high note by beating Cal in this bowl game."

Nagel is also assigning a high-confidence ranking of 33 to a team that's barely favored by a field goal. He is highly confident in the winner, but many people in your pool may be skeptical. Picks like these could be the difference between winning your 2018 bowl confidence pool and going home empty-handed. 

So which teams should you rank in which order in your football confidence pools? And what underrated favorite do you need to be all-in on? Visit SportsLine to see the full bowl confidence picks, and see what teams won't disappoint, all from our senior analyst who's hitting 77 percent of his spread selections.

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