College football games, picks for Week 11: Iowa, Michigan State continue to roll

Each week, I will use this space to tell you what I think are a few of the best bets heading into the weekend. I will also throw in an upset of the week, which will be a team that is at least a touchdown underdog that I am picking to win outright.

After two good weeks, last week was a clunker. I took a bad beat from Notre Dame after Wake Forest scored late to cover. Michigan State not only covered, but beat Penn State. It could have been worse though. Auburn could have scored one more point. As it is, I ended up with a push. My record for the season is now 17-11-2, and 3-7 on the upset specials.

Time for a rebound.

Week 11 Picks

Iowa at Wisconsin (-12.5): Iowa has not beaten top-10 opponents in back-to-back games since 1958, but they will be looking to do just that when they travel to Madison to take on Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes have only tried to pull this off one other time in the Kirk Ferentz era. In 2003, they beat No. 9 Michigan, then traveled to No. 8 Ohio State after a bye week and came up short. I expect a similar experience this time. The Hawkeyes will battle, but Wisconsin is better and will find a way to get its first quality win of the season. Pick: Iowa (+12.5)

Michigan State at Ohio State (-15.5): Ohio State has played three good teams this season. The Buckeyes got their butts kicked twice and needed a late rally to salvage a win in the third game. Ohio State might very well win, but there is no reason to believe it can cover a big line against a good team. Pick: Michigan State (+15.5)

Florida at South Carolina (-7):  Florida is reeling. Missouri just beat the Gators by 29. Twenty-nine! You think Will Muschamp is going to go easy on them? Yeah, me neither. I am not sure he could if he wanted to. Pick: South Carolina (-7)

Upset of the Week

UAB at UTSA (-7): UAB did not play football for two years, but the Blazers are back. Do not fool yourself into thinking that they are just happy to be playing. They are winning! UAB has six wins already and is bowl eligible. It is at UTSA this week to face a Roadrunners squad that is looking to become bowl eligible also, but they have taken advantage of a putrid schedule. The five teams UTSA has beaten have a combined three wins against FBS schools, and one of those came in a game between two of their victims. Pick: UAB (+7)

Other CFP candidates in action

  • Georgia at Auburn (+2.5) Pick: Auburn
  • Alabama at Mississippi State (+14) Pick: Alabama
  • Notre Dame at Miami (+3) Pick: Miami
  • Florida State at Clemson (-16) Pick: Clemson
  • TCU at Oklahoma (-6.5) Pick: Oklahoma
  • Washington at Stanford (-6) Pick: Stanford
CBS Sports Senior Writer

Jerry Palm started writing about sports on the Internet right after Al Gore invented it. He was the first to bring RPI out in the open and is one of the pioneers of predicting the March Madness bracket.... Full Bio

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