College football odds and picks Week 5: Model loves Notre Dame, Ohio State
Our computer model simulated every Week 5 college football game 10,000 times with surprising results
College football's fifth weekend will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors.
No. 7 Georgia is an eight-point favorite against Tennessee in Knoxville, No. 2 Clemson is a seven-point favorite at No. 12 Virginia Tech in a game that has already seen plenty of line movement, and No. 1 Alabama is a four-touchdown favorite at home against SEC rival Ole Miss.
With so many eye-popping games and so many college football odds on the move, you'll want to know to what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking.
SportsLine's Projection Model turned in double-digit profitable weeks in college football last season across all picks, including a remarkable 18-4 run on straight-up picks to open the season. Anyone who followed it during those weeks profited big. And it's fresh off a 9-4 week on moneylines.
This week, the model simulated every Top-25 game, plus the rest of the slate, and the results were surprising.
The model loves Ohio State to win and cover convincingly, even on the road at Rutgers. The Buckeyes are 29-point favorites, but SportsLine's model has them easily covering and winning, 39-6. It's predicting Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett to throw for 246 yards and two scores and add 63 more yards on the ground. Expect the Under to hit in this game.
Another team the advanced model is all-in on: No. 22 Notre Dame, a 21-point favorite at home against Miami (Ohio). Fighting Irish fans might be jittery after a home loss to Georgia three weeks ago, but the model says they'll easily beat Miami by 24. Look for Brandon Wimbush to go off for 250 yards passing and two scores for Notre Dame.
A surprise: It's predicting No. 21 Florida, a nine-point home favorite, to barely squeak by Vanderbilt 17-14. The Commodores were shelled at home by Alabama last week 59-0, while Florida edged Kentucky by one. Look for an easy Under in this game as well. Florida is winning 59 percent of simulations in a game that's going to be a lot closer than the public thinks.
Another shocker: No. 25 LSU, coming off a nine-point win against Syracuse last week, beat Troy by 11. Why is that a surprise? The Tigers are favored by three touchdowns. Don't expect LSU to run away from Troy, which has won three straight.
It's also calling for a Top 25 team with high hopes to go down in flames, potentially wrecking its national championship bid in the process.
What college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 5? Check out the college football odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus see which side of the big Georgia-Tennessee game is a virtual lock, all from the model that turned in double-digit winning weeks last season, as well as picks from 16 experts.
Ole Miss at Alabama (-27.5, 57)
Clemson at Virginia Tech (+7, 50.5)
Indiana at Penn State (-18.5, 63)
USC at Washington State (+3.5, 65)
Washington at Oregon State (+26.5, 63)
Georgia at Tennessee 24 (+7, 47)
Northwestern at Wisconsin (-14.5, 51.5)
Ohio State at Rutgers (+29.5, 52)
Mississippi State at Auburn (-8, 52)
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (+10, 84.5)
South Florida at ECU (+21, 75)
Northern Illinois at San Diego State (-10, 47.5)
Vanderbilt at Florida (-9, 40.5)
Miami (Ohio) at Notre Dame (-21, 53.5)
Troy at LSU (-20.5, 48.5)
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