College football odds and picks, Week 8: Proven model calling for Top 25 surprises

Week 8 in college football will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors.

No. 13 Notre Dame is favored by three against No. 11 USC, top-ranked Alabama is a massive 36-point favorite over SEC rival Tennessee, and No. 2 Penn State is favored by 9.5 at home against No. 19 Michigan in a game that has already seen the line move several points.

With so many eye-popping games and so many college football odds on the move, you'll want to know what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking.

SportsLine's Projection Model turned in double-digit profitable weeks in college football last season across all picks, including a remarkable 18-4 run on straight-up picks to open the season. Anyone who followed it during those weeks profited big. And it's fresh off a week in which it called Miami (Fla.) struggling against Georgia Tech and Alabama continuing to cover huge spreads.

This week, the model simulated every Top 25 game, plus the rest of the slate, and the results were surprising.

The model is once again loving Alabama, this time to cruise past Tennessee 52-8. It would be an easy win and cover for the Crimson Tide against a Vols team that is 0-5 against the spread this season. SportsLine's 60 projected points would send this game way over (50.5) as well. Tennessee fans calling for Butch Jones' head won't be any happier come Saturday evening.

The model is also all-in on No. 23 West Virginia against Baylor. The Mountaineers, new to the Top 25 this week, are nine-point favorites on the road, but SportsLine's advanced projection model says they'll win and cover with room to spare 37-25. Baylor has not covered this season, so back West Virginia with confidence; it is winning 73 percent of simulations.

One huge shocker: LSU, favored by 6.5 points against Ole Miss, only escapes with a one-point victory. Vegas is overvaluing LSU, a team that upset Auburn last week but also lost to Troy a few weeks back. Back Ole Miss against the spread with confidence in this one.

Another stunner: Navy, a team that was undefeated and in the Top 25 just last week, won't just lose -- it will get run over by No. 20 Central Florida. UCF is favored by eight, but the model says the Knights more than double that spread and win by 17 in a convincing 46-29 victory. Central Florida is 5-0 against the spread this season and has won every game by at least 27 points.

It's also calling for a Top 25 team with high hopes to go down in flames, potentially wrecking its national championship bid in the process.

What college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 8? Check out the college football odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus see which side of the big Michigan-Penn State game is a virtual lock, all from the model that turned in double-digit winning weeks last season, as well as picks from 16 experts.

Tennessee at Alabama (-36, 50.5)
Michigan at Penn State (-9.5, 43)
Kansas at TCU (-39, 59.5)
Maryland at Wisconsin (-24, 50.5)
Syracuse at Miami (-17, 59)
Oklahoma at Kansas State (+14, 54)
Oklahoma State at Texas (+7, 65)
Southern California at Notre Dame (-3, 65.5)
North Carolina at Virginia Tech (-21, 51.5)
Colorado at Washington State (-10, 52)
South Florida at Tulane (-11.5, 54)
Indiana at Michigan State (-6.5, 46)
Central Florida at Navy (+7.5, 65)
Auburn at Arkansas (+15.5, 52.5)
West Virginia at Baylor (+9, 67)
LSU at Ole Miss (+7, 59.5)

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