College football odds, picks for Week 11: Advanced model loving Penn State, Ohio State

Week 11 in college football will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors.

Alabama is favored by 13 against Mississippi State, Georgia is a 2-point favorite at Auburn, and Notre Dame is a 3-point favorite against Miami in a Top-10 showdown that has already seen plenty of line movement.

With so many eye-popping games and so many college football odds on the move, you'll want to know what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking.

SportsLine's Projection Model turned in double-digit profitable weeks last season across all college football picks, including a remarkable 18-4 run straight up to open the season. Anyone who followed it during those weeks profited big.

It's fresh off a week in which it nailed Miami's upset of Virginia Tech and USC easily covering the spread against Arizona.

This week, the model simulated every Top 25 game 10,000 times, plus the rest of the slate, and the results were surprising.

The model is loving No. 16 Penn State to bounce back in a big way. Coming off losses to Ohio State and Michigan State in back-to-back weeks, SportsLine says the Nittany Lions cover a gigantic 31-point line against Rutgers with ease and win 42-7. Look for RB Saquon Barkley to go well over 150 yards from scrimmage.

Another team the model loves: Ohio State (-17), which is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Iowa. The Buckeyes got humbled last week and they're going up against a Michigan State squad coming off a massive victory against Penn State. But don't let one week of action deceive you.

The computer still strongly stands by OSU as being the better team in this matchup, and the Buckeyes, playing at home, cover in 59 percent of simulations. They win the game outright 90 percent of the time.

One surprise: No. 1 Georgia loses outright, 25-23, to No. 14 Auburn. Don't let the Bulldogs' 6-2 record against the spread fool you.

Georgia faces one of its stiffest tests of the season against a team that has shown it can play with anybody in the nation. The Tigers have a stingy defense that's No. 4 in the SEC. It will force Georgia freshman quarterback Jake Fromm to make more plays through the air than he's comfortable with. Take Auburn with the points and look for a result that will shake up the college football title picture. 

Another stunner: Wisconsin (-12) gets the win at home against Iowa, but it'll be a one-possession game that's much closer than the spread indicates. The Hawkeyes are red hot coming off their beatdown of Ohio State. They'll ride that momentum to force a competitive game. They're covering the 12 points in 68 percent of simulations.

The model is also calling for a Top-10 team with championship hopes to go down in flames, virtually eliminating it from the playoff race.

What college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 11? Check out the college football odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus see which side of the huge Miami-Notre Dame game is a virtual lock, all from the model that turned in double-digit winning weeks last season, as well as picks from 16 experts.

Alabama at Mississippi State (+13, 50.5)
Georgia at Auburn (+2, 47)
Notre Dame at Miami (+3, 57.5)
Florida State at Clemson (-16, 46)
TCU at Oklahoma (-6.5, 61.5)
Iowa at Wisconsin (-12, 46)
Michigan State at Ohio State (-17, 53.5)
Oklahoma State at Iowa State (+6.5, 60.5)
Michigan at Maryland (+17, 45.5)
USC at Colorado (+14, 64.5)
Rutgers at Penn State (-31, 52.5)
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech (+3, 50)
UConn at UCF (-40.5, 64)
Washington State at Utah (+1, 52)
West Virginia at Kansas State (-2.5, 62.5)

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