College football odds, picks for Week 12: Advanced model loves Ohio State, Notre Dame

Week 12 in college football will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors.

TCU is favored by six on the road at Texas Tech, Wisconsin is a 7.5-point favorite at home against Michigan and Miami is an 18.5-point favorite against Virginia in a game that has already seen plenty of line movement.

With so many games with title implications and so many college football odds on the move, you'll want to know what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking.

SportsLine's Projection Model turned in double-digit profitable weeks last season across all college football picks and was 11-4 straight up last week in Top 25 games. Anybody who followed its picks reaped a nice payday.

It's fresh off a week in which it nailed Auburn's win over Georgia and Ohio State easily covering the spread against Michigan State.

This week, the model simulated every Top 25 game 10,000 times, plus the rest of the slate, and the results were surprising.

The model is again loving Ohio State to roll to a win and a cover, this time against Illinois. The Buckeyes responded in a big way from their loss to Iowa by dismantling Michigan State last week. They'll continue their resurgence with another massive blowout. SportsLine says the Buckeyes cover a gigantic 41-point line against Illinois and win 53-7.

The model says J.T. Barrett will pass for over 250 yards and three touchdowns. Illinois is just 3-7 against the spread this season, and you can bank on the over (53) hitting in this one as well.

Another team the model loves: Notre Dame. Despite getting throttled last week against Miami, Notre Dame takes care of business back home against Navy. The Fighting Irish are favored by 17.5, but SportsLine's proven projection model says they'll cruise to a 24-point victory and cover 44-20. Notre Dame is 7-3 against the spread this season.

The over-under is 58.5 in Navy-Notre Dame, down from an open of 62, so back the over too.

One surprise: LSU beats Tennessee, but it won't be by nearly as much as Vegas thinks. Fresh off the firing of Butch Jones, the Vols to rally around interim head coach Brady Hoke and keep this game respectable in Neyland Stadium. Tennessee ultimately falls 23-17 but stays well within the 15.5-point spread.

The Vols are covering in a whopping 68 percent of simulations, so back Tennessee against the spread with confidence in this one.

The model is also calling for a serious playoff contender to get the scare of a lifetime against an underdog that is ready to play spoiler. This underdog is almost a lock to cover the spread and a real threat to win outright. Find out who it is at SportsLine.

What college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 12? Check out the college football odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus see which side of the big TCU-Texas Tech game is a virtual lock, all from the model that turned in double-digit winning weeks last season and went 11-4 last week, as well as picks from 16 experts.

Virginia @ Miami (-18.5, 50.5)
Oklahoma @ Kansas (+37.5, 69)
Michigan @ Wisconsin (-7.5, 40.5)
LA Monroe @ Auburn (-37, 68)
Kentucky @ Georgia (-21.5, 51.5)
Illinois@ Ohio State (-41, 53.5)
Navy @ Notre Dame (-17.5, 58.5)
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State (-19.5, 65)
TCU @ Texas Tech (+6, 53)
UCLA @ USC (-16, 71.5)
Nebraska @ Penn State (-26, 56)
UCF @ Temple (+13.5, 55.5)
Utah @ Washington (-17.5, 46.5)
Mississippi State @ Arkansas (+13, 57.5)
SMU @ Memphis (-12.5, 71.5)
California @ Stanford (-15.5, 55.5)
LSU @ Tennessee (+15.5, 44.5)
Texas @ West Virginia (-3, 54)
NC State @ Wake Forest (-1.5, 63)
Maryland @ Michigan State (-16, 43)

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