College football odds, picks, lines for Week 4: Advanced computer model loving Georgia and fading Mississippi State

Week 4 of the college football season will shape the conference standings and College Football Playoffs for months to come. Everyone from Average Joes to seasoned bettors will put down wagers for games beginning at noon ET and continuing throughout the day. In the latest college football odds on Saturday, Heisman candidate Will Grier's West Virginia Mountaineers are 16.5-point favorites against Kansas State after the line opened at 14.5. Other college football spreads have been on the move all week, like Stanford now being favored by 2.5 against Oregon after opening as 2.5-point underdogs. With so much at stake and college football odds swinging from side-to-side, be sure to check out the Week 4 college football picks and predictions from SportsLine's advanced computer. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. In the past three years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors.

It also made several huge calls last week, nailing BYU against the spread (+23.5) and on the money line (+950) against Wisconsin, as well as LSU against the spread (+10) and on the money line (+315) at Auburn. It finished the week a blistering 31-16 against the spread overall and nailed 10 of its 13 top-ranked picks. Anybody following it finished way, way up.

Now the model has simulated every single play of the Week 4 college football schedule, and you can see the results only over at SportsLine.

One of the top Week 4 college football picks the model loves: Georgia (-14) gets a convincing win and cover at Missouri.

Dating back to last season, the Tigers have won nine consecutive regular-season games. They're looking to make a statement in the SEC East, but the Bulldogs' elite defense will be too much for Drew Lock and his talented supporting cast. The model projects Lock to throw for under 300 yards, while Georgia's stable of backs piles up close to 200 yards on the ground as the Bulldogs cover in over half of simulations. Don't be turned off by a two-touchdown line on the road; back Georgia with confidence.

Another college football pick you should be all over on Saturday, according to the model: Kentucky (+9.5) covers at home against No. 14 Mississippi State. 

Bulldogs quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, a Heisman contender, will be a huge challenge for Kentucky's defense. However, the Wildcats have shown they're up to the challenge this year, holding all three opponents to 20 points or fewer, including shocking Florida for the first time in 31 years with a 27-16 victory. Bettors have taken notice, as the line on this game has dropped a full point since opening at 10.5. 

The model is calling for Fitzgerald to be held to just two total touchdowns as Kentucky covers the spread in over 55 percent of simulations. Back the Under (56) as well because that hits in over 60 percent of simulations.

The model also has a strong selection for the Top 25 battle between Alabama and Texas A&M, and is calling for a double-digit favorite with national title aspirations to get a massive scare at home.

So what college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 4? And what title contender gets the scare of a lifetime? Visit SportsLine to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $4,000 in profit over the past three seasons and was all over BYU's stunning upset of Wisconsin in Week 3.

Notre Dame at Wake Forest (+6.5, 59)
Georgia at Missouri (+14, 64.5)
Texas A&M at Alabama (-26, 60.5)
Clemson at Georgia Tech (+16, 52.5)
Tulane at Ohio State (-37, 68)
Kansas State at West Virginia (-16.5, 60.5)
South Carolina at Vanderbilt (+2.5, 53.5)
TCU at Texas (+3, 48)
Florida at Tennessee (+3.5, 45.5)
Mississippi State at Kentucky (+9.5, 56)
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State (-14, 76.5)
Army at Oklahoma (-31, 59.5)
Michigan State at Indiana (+5.5, 49.5)
Arkansas at Auburn (-30, 57.5)
Stanford at Oregon (+2.5, 56.5)
Wisconsin at Iowa (+3, 42.5)
Arizona State at Washington (-18, 51.5)

Our Latest Stories