College football odds, picks Week 7: Minnesota upsets No. 21 Michigan State

College football's seventh weekend will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors.

No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs is favored by 6.5 at Kansas State Wildcats , No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide is a 31.5-point favorite over SEC rival Arkansas Razorbacks in a game that has already seen the line move multiple points and No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners , fresh off last week's stunning loss to Iowa State Cyclones , is a nine-point favorite against Texas Longhorns .

With so many eye-popping games and so many odds on the move, you'll want to know what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking.

SportsLine's Projection Model turned in double-digit profitable weeks in college football last season across all picks, including a remarkable 18-4 run on straight-up picks to open the season. Anyone who followed it during those weeks profited big. And it's fresh off a week in which it nailed TCU struggling against West Virginia Mountaineers and Ohio State Buckeyes continuing to cover big spreads.

This week, the model simulated every Top 25 game, plus the rest of the slate, and the results were surprising.

The model loves Georgia to cover a massive 29.5-point spread at home against Missouri. Georgia has covered every game this season and the model thinks the Dawgs will keep it up, calling for a 48-13 win and an easy cover. Look for an over in this game as well.

SportsLine's advanced model predicts that No. 20 NC State Wolfpack will get its sixth win of the season, but the Wolfpack will only win by four against Pitt and won't cover an 11-point spread. NC State is winning 59 percent of simulations. The Wolfpack are 4-1 against the spread, but don't be fooled. Back Pitt with confidence.

One shocker: No. 21 Michigan State Spartans , new to the Top 25 this week after beating Michigan Wolverines , loses outright at 3-2 Minnesota Golden Gophers . The Golden Gophers are winning 57 percent of simulations and will win by three. Michigan State will fall to 4-2 on the season and against the spread.

The model also is predicting that a top-10 team will be in grave danger of seeing its perfect season go down in flames, potentially wrecking its national championship bid in the process.

What college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 6? Check out the college football odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus see which side of the big Auburn-LSU game is a virtual lock, all from the model that turned in double-digit winning weeks last season, and get picks from 16 experts.

Arkansas at Alabama (-31.5, 54)
Clemson Tigers at Syracuse Orange (+23.5, 57.5)
Missouri Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs (-29.5, 56.5)
Washington Huskies at Arizona State Sun Devils (+17.5, 56)
TCU at Kansas State (+7, 49.5)
Purdue Boilermakers at Wisconsin Badgers (-17, 50)
Washington State Cougars at California Golden Bears (+16.5, 55)
Ohio State at Nebraska Cornhuskers (+24.5, 58)
Auburn Tigers at LSU Tigers (+7, 43.5)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Miami (-6.5, 51.5)
Oklahoma vs. Texas (+9, 64.5)
Utah Utes at Southern California Trojans (-13, 52.5)
Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-26, 68.5)
Michigan at Indiana Hoosiers (+7.5, 46.5)
Cincinnati Bearcats at South Florida Bulls (-23.5, 65)
Boise State Broncos at SDSU (-6.5, 46)
NC State at Pittsburgh Panthers (+11, 53.5)
Michigan State at Minnesota (+4, 40)
East Carolina Pirates at UCF Knights (-36, 69.5)
Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal (-10, 55.5)
Texas Tech Red Raiders at West Virginia (-3.5, 78.5)
Navy Midshipmen at Memphis Tigers (-4, 75.5)

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