College football odds, picks Week 7: Minnesota upsets No. 21 Michigan State

College football's seventh weekend will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors.

No. 6 TCU is favored by 6.5 at Kansas State, No. 1 Alabama is a 31.5-point favorite over SEC rival Arkansas in a game that has already seen the line move multiple points and No. 12 Oklahoma, fresh off last week's stunning loss to Iowa State, is a nine-point favorite against Texas.

With so many eye-popping games and so many odds on the move, you'll want to know what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking.

SportsLine's Projection Model turned in double-digit profitable weeks in college football last season across all picks, including a remarkable 18-4 run on straight-up picks to open the season. Anyone who followed it during those weeks profited big. And it's fresh off a week in which it nailed TCU struggling against West Virginia and Ohio State continuing to cover big spreads.

This week, the model simulated every Top 25 game, plus the rest of the slate, and the results were surprising.

The model loves Georgia to cover a massive 29.5-point spread at home against Missouri. Georgia has covered every game this season and the model thinks the Dawgs will keep it up, calling for a 48-13 win and an easy cover. Look for an over in this game as well.

SportsLine's advanced model predicts that No. 20 NC State will get its sixth win of the season, but the Wolfpack will only win by four against Pitt and won't cover an 11-point spread. NC State is winning 59 percent of simulations. The Wolfpack are 4-1 against the spread, but don't be fooled. Back Pitt with confidence.

One shocker: No. 21 Michigan State, new to the Top 25 this week after beating Michigan, loses outright at 3-2 Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are winning 57 percent of simulations and will win by three. Michigan State will fall to 4-2 on the season and against the spread.

The model also is predicting that a top-10 team will be in grave danger of seeing its perfect season go down in flames, potentially wrecking its national championship bid in the process.

What college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 6? Check out the college football odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus see which side of the big Auburn-LSU game is a virtual lock, all from the model that turned in double-digit winning weeks last season, and get picks from 16 experts.

Arkansas at Alabama (-31.5, 54)
Clemson at Syracuse (+23.5, 57.5)
Missouri at Georgia (-29.5, 56.5)
Washington at Arizona State (+17.5, 56)
TCU at Kansas State (+7, 49.5)
Purdue at Wisconsin (-17, 50)
Washington State at California (+16.5, 55)
Ohio State at Nebraska (+24.5, 58)
Auburn at LSU (+7, 43.5)
Georgia Tech at Miami (-6.5, 51.5)
Oklahoma vs. Texas (+9, 64.5)
Utah at USC (-13, 52.5)
Baylor at Oklahoma State (-26, 68.5)
Michigan at Indiana (+7.5, 46.5)
Cincinnati at South Florida (-23.5, 65)
Boise State at SDSU (-6.5, 46)
NC State at Pittsburgh (+11, 53.5)
Michigan State at Minnesota (+4, 40)
East Carolina at UCF (-36, 69.5)
Oregon at Stanford (-10, 55.5)
Texas Tech at West Virginia (-3.5, 78.5)
Navy at Memphis (-4, 75.5)

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