Even though the Iowa State Cyclones entered the 2025 college football season coming off an 11-win campaign, many dismissed the program as a serious College Football Playoff contender in the Big 12. The Cyclones were bringing back 14 starters from a squad that went to the Big 12 title game, headlined by quarterback Rocco Becht. Four weeks in, Iowa State is undefeated and has climbed to No. 14 in the rankings. Can the Cyclones keep things going in Week 5 when they welcome Arizona to Ames?
The SportsLine Inside the Lines team's model backs the Cyclones to win in 67% of simulations, and we're picking Iowa State money line as one of three legs in an all-Big 12 parlay at Caesars Sportsbook for Week 5.
College football Week 5 Big 12 parlay
- No. 24 TCU +2.5 vs. Arizona State (-110)
- West Virginia +12.5 vs. Utah (-115)
- No. 14 Iowa State ML vs. Arizona (-250)
Final odds: +410 (wager $100 to win $410)
No. 24 TCU +2.5 vs. Arizona State
The Sun Devils are still alive to win the Big 12 and get back to the Playoff, but they are not as good as they were a year ago. Sam Leavitt has already turned the ball over three times after throwing only six interceptions a year ago. Arizona State barely escaped with a win over Baylor and lost to Mississippi State late, so this team clearly struggles against better competition. TCU is coming off a massive win in the Iron Skillet game and looks like one of the best offensive teams in the country with quarterback Josh Hoover at the controls. I like the Horned Frogs to at least cover if not win outright on Friday. The ITL model agrees, with TCU covering in 62% of simulations and winning in 58% of them.
West Virginia +12.5 vs. Utah
It's hard to back Rich Rodriguez's team in this game, especially after the Mountaineers got demolished by Kansas last week. Perhaps the emotional high of a win in the Backyard Brawl set West Virginia up for a letdown. The good news is the Mountaineers get to host a Utah team coming off a bad loss to Texas Tech. The Utes got shredded defensively, giving up 34 points and 484 total yards. This will be a crucial game when it comes to bowl eligibility for both sides, and while I don't think West Virginia wins, I do see the Mountaineers covering this spread. According to the SportsLine model, West Virginia covers in 62% of simulations.
N. 14 Iowa State money line vs. Arizona
One of the biggest criticisms against Iowa State is the Cyclones haven't been particularly convincing against average teams. Kansas State was a co-favorite to win the Big 12 but was clearly overrated by oddsmakers. One-possession wins over Iowa and Arkansas State aren't going to boost the resume. However, Iowa State can only play the teams in front of it, and the Cyclones are undefeated ahead of a big conference showdown at home. Arizona has an explosive offense and is also coming into this game off a bye week, so fatigue won't be a factor. I think Becht is the difference in this game and will make enough plays to keep Iowa State unblemished on the season.
