This season is unlike any other we have ever experienced in college football, especially as it pertains to home-field advantage not meaning as much due to little or no crowds. So far, the home teams have won 45 of the 99 games between FBS teams. Four of the 10 conferences have yet to start playing, so the number of games available is much lower than usual. Computer simulations, if that's your thing, mean nothing with only 53 total non-conference games between FBS schools currently scheduled. Nevertheless, we must work with what we have.
Each week, I will use this space to tell you what I think are a few of the best bets heading into the weekend. I will also throw in an upset of the week, which will be a team that is at least a touchdown underdog that I am picking to win outright. I will also give you picks on other games involving potential College Football Playoff teams. Considering many teams haven't played yet, pretty much everybody is technically a CFP candidate right now, so I'll go with the Top 12 teams in this week's AP Top 25 poll that have already commenced play this season.
I was 1-2 on my regular picks last week but hit on my first upset pick of the season. There are only 31 games to choose from this week, the fewest since the SEC started playing.
Odds below provided via William Hill Sportsbook
Week 6 Picks
Florida State at No. 5 Notre Dame (-21): Florida State is a mess. The Seminoles have lost at home to Georgia Tech and got smashed at Miami. Last week, they needed a second-half rally to beat Jacksonville State. Notre Dame has only given up 13 points so far this season, albeit to Duke and South Florida. My only concern for the Irish is that they have had the last two weeks off due to the postponement of the Wake Forest game. Pick: Notre Dame (-21)
Kansas State at TCU (-9): Kansas State is coming off a 10-point win over Texas Tech, which is the only game either of these two teams have played that had a double-digit margin. They both have a win over one of the original league favorites. KSU knocked off Oklahoma two weeks ago, while TCU held off Texas last week. This feels like a closer game than this line would indicate, and a Wildcats win would not be a surprise. Pick: Kansas State (+9)
Duke at Syracuse (+2.5): I feel like I missed a memo. Only one of these teams has won a game, and that is Syracuse, which pounded Georgia Tech 37-20 two weeks ago. The closest the 0-4 Blue Devils have come to winning was a seven-point loss to Virginia Tech last week. Meanwhile, the Orange could see some key players return this week. Pick: Syracuse (+2.5)
Upset of the Week
Pittsburgh at Boston College (+6): Boston College struggled to beat Texas State a couple of weeks ago but sandwiched those games with an easy win at Duke to start the season and a near-upset of North Carolina last week. Pitt is 3-1, but none of those wins were impressive in either the quality of opponent or margin. This is the Panthers' first game away from home. The Eagles should be able to at least cover, and I like them to win outright. Pick: Boston College (+6)
Other CFP candidates
- No. 7 Miami at No. 1 Clemson (-14) Pick: Clemson
- No. 2 Alabama at Mississippi (+223) Pick: Mississippi
- No. 14 Tennessee at No. 3 Georgia (-13), Pick: Georgia
- No. 4 Florida vs. No. 21 Texas A&M (+6.5) Pick: Florida
- No. 19 Virginia Tech at No. 8 North Carolina (-5), Pick: Virginia Tech
- Arkansas at No. 13 Auburn (-13) Pick: Auburn
- UT San Antonio at No. 15 BYU (-33.5) Pick: BYU
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 6, and which team will pull off a shocking upset? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread -- all from a proven computer model that has returned over $4,200 in profit over the past four-plus seasons -- and find out.