The first College Football Playoff Rankings will not be released until Nov. 1 this season, but we do not want to wait that long to look at how the rankings would stand just over midway through the 2022 season. We are here to predict what the top 25 would look like if the CFP Selection Committee were making its announcement this Tuesday.
It is a warmup act for the warmup act, which is every edition of the CFP Rankings before the final one comes out after conference championship Saturday.
Before we get to the rankings themselves, here's a refresher listing some of key points the committee members consider when deciding a team's ranking beyond their on-field record:
- Strength of schedule
- Conference championships (when decided)
- Head-to-head
- Results vs. common opponents
- Results vs. ranked opponents
Thankfully, the committee's definition of "ranked opponents" is different than what you're used to seeing. The rankings they use are the prior week's CFP Rankings. They do not consider where teams are ranked when the games were played either in the CFP, AP Top 25, etc. Using game-time rankings is the most worthless way to determine "ranked opponents;" in fact, the committee specifically forbids the use of any poll that has a preseason starting point.
Notice that "game control" is not listed in the criteria. It never has been considered despite the term (or similar concepts) coming out of the mouth of the committee chairman at times the last few full seasons. (The CFP does not have a way to measure "game control" -- I've seen the data the committee uses -- but let's not kid ourselves: They do talk about it.)
With all of that in mind, here is how the CFP Rankings would look if released this week. These rankings are top heavy with SEC and BIg Ten teams only because they have not weeded each other out yet.
Note: This projection is based only on results to this point. It does not reflect the final forecast for the playoff. The complete bowl playoff and bowl projections through the end of the season can be found here.
College Football Playoff Rankings projection
| 1 |  |
| Other than not showing up at Missouri in a near-upset and a closer-than-it-should-have-been win over Kent State, the reigning champions have been dominant again this season. They have two wins over currently ranked teams, and both were blowouts. The rivalry game with Florida could be a pivot point on Saturday. | |
| 2 |  |
| The Buckeyes have laid waste to their schedule so far, but it has not been a particularly good schedule. The supposed best team on it so far, Notre Dame, has been a dud. Ohio State has yet to play an opponent in this week's rankings although that changes on Saturday against Penn State. | |
| 3 |  |
| The Volunteers finally got the elephant off their backs. The 52-49 win over Alabama two weeks ago sent a statement that Tennessee is ready to compete for a spot in the CFP. The Vols also have two wins against ranked opponents, but also have played two glorified scrimmages, which is dragging down their overall strength of schedule. Tennessee is one of the five most penalized teams in the country, so that could come back to haunt them at some point. | |
| 4 |  |
| The Tigers seem to be rounding more into the form we are used to seeing from them, but they are not quite there yet as questions persist about whether DJ Uiagalelei is capable enough to lead them beyond a conference title. Clemson has three wins over teams in this week's rankings. | |
| 5 |  |
| Michigan's schedule has been awful so far. The Wolverines played arguably the worst nonconference slate of any highly competitive team and did so without scheduling a FCS team. They got a bit of a scare from Maryland and struggled with Indiana for a half (game control!), but demolished Penn State, the only ranked team the Wolverines have played thus far. | |
| 6 |  |
| The Horned Frogs are fun to watch. They rank third nationally in total offense and scoring offense. They have had to survive a couple of tough games, but TCU is still undefeated. The Frogs still have road games forthcoming with Texas and Baylor, but it should be smooth sailing until then. | |
| 7 |  |
| The Crimson Tide have struggled a little more this season than we are used to seeing. They already have a loss and were fortunate to win at Texas. They had to play a game and a half with backup QB Jalen Milroe, but the Tide were able to win those games. After a week off, Alabama has a tough two-game road trip to LSU and Ole Miss. | |
| 8 |  |
| The Cowboys' only loss came at home to TCU in double overtime. Oklahoma State just picked up its best win of the season over Texas on Saturday. The Pokes have back-to-back games in Kansas the next two weeks, so things are not exactly getting easier. | |
| 9 |  |
| The Ducks have scored at least 49 points every time they have taken the field this season with one notable exception. Oregon could finish 12-1 and win the Pac-12, but most people will only remember the season-opening dud against Georgia. That is a problem for another day, though. Oregon's schedule sets up well for a run to the Pac-12 title game with all its best opponents at home. | |
| 10 |  |
| The Nittany Lions have done pretty well against most opponents, but Michigan beat them pretty badly at the Big House two weeks ago. The only other team to really test them so far was Purdue on the road in the season opener. We will find out if Penn State can slow down mighty Ohio State this Saturday. Too bad that is not their white out game. | |
| 11 |  |
| The Trojans came out hot with new coach Lincoln Riley and a host of new players from the transfer portal. Things have slowed down a bit lately, and they suffered their first loss at Utah two weeks ago. USC should have an easy road the next few weeks before the trip to the Rose Bowl to play UCLA. | |
| 12 |  |
| The Pac-12 has not gotten much love in recent years, but it is stronger at the top than we have seen in some time. Part of the reason for that is the resurgence of UCLA. The Bruins gave notice with back-to-back wins over Washington and Utah. They came out flat last week against Oregon and now have to likely win out to get a shot at the Pac-12 title. | |
| 13 |  |
| The Rebels took their first loss of the season in a blowout at LSU. Ole Miss led 17-3 before giving up a 42-3 run to end the game. It has a win over Kentucky, which helps bolster its case. | |
| 14 |  |
| The Orange are coming off their best performance of the season, which is also their only loss. They gave Clemson everything they had in Death Valley on Saturday but came up a little short. Syracuse's best win came over NC State, which was without QB Devin Leary. Cuse faces Notre Dame this week, which has already lost at home to the likes of Marshall and Stanford. | |
| 15 |  |
| The Demon Deacons are a whisper from undefeated. Their only loss came to Clemson at home in double overtime. They are lacking a higher quality win with their best so far coming in a blowout of Liberty. Some might say the win at Florida State is better. Better opportunities await, just not this week. | |
| 16 |  |
| It's been an up-and-down year for the Tigers, but they are coming off their best effort of the season so far. LSU stormed back to take down previously unbeaten Ole Miss on Saturday. That completed the season sweep of the Mississippi schools. The Tigers would probably be higher in the top 10 if they had finished off Florida State in the season opener. LSU now gets two weeks to prepare for Alabama. | |
| 17 |  |
| The Utes were the preseason favorite in the Pac-12, and winning the league is still possible, but not with another loss. Utah got off to a rough start this season by losing at Florida and then falling to UCLA in conference play. The Utes picked up a big win over USC and have a victory over 6-2 Oregon State. | |
| 18 |  |
| The Tar Heels are coming off a win at Duke, which is already their fourth road victory of the season. Their most memorable win though was the 63-61 thriller to open the season with Appalachian State. North Carolina's only loss came at home to Notre Dame. The Tar Heels have a two-game lead in the ACC Coastal and own tiebreakers with Duke and Miami. | |
| 19 |  |
| Bret Bielema has turned things around in pretty short order in Champaign. The Illini have ridden a tough running game and stingy defense to the top the pile that is the Big Ten West; however, they have the worst loss of any team that is on this list. That was the season-opening defeat at Indiana. Their best win and only one away from home came at Wisconsin, which got the Paul Chryst fired. The Badgers haven't lost since, but I digress. | |
| 20 |  |
| The Wildcats were off to a great start with five straight wins that included one at Florida. Then QB Will Levis dislocated his finger. He played through it in a loss to Ole Miss and sat out the loss to South Carolina. He returned two weeks ago to lead the Wildcats to victory over Mississippi State. | |
| 21 |  |
| The Green Wave are the only team from the Group of Five in this projection. They have a win at Kansas State, which until Saturday, was the Wildcats' only loss. Tulane's loss is at home to Southern Miss, which is having a decent season, but it is what is keeping Tulane down in these rankings. | |
| 22 |  |
| Jonathan Smith has built a nice program at Corvallis, but nobody is paying much attention. The Beavers had USC beat but ultimately could not hold off the Trojans. Their other loss was at Utah and not particularly close. They do have wins over Washington State and Boise State, as well as Fresno State prior to the loss of their QB Jake Haener. | |
| 23 |  |
| The Gamecocks are the seventh SEC team to appear in these rankings. It is unlikely a number like that is sustainable. South Carolina has wins at Kentucky and over Texas A&M along with losses to Georgia and at Arkansas. Neither of those losses were close games. The Gamecocks have two must-wins coming up against the bottom of the league. | |
| 24 |  |
| The Wildcats have only lost at home to Tulane and at TCU, two teams that are ranked ahead of them here. Their best wins are at Oklahoma and at home to Texas Tech. | |
| 25 |  |
| The Wolfpack has lost to Clemson and Syracuse, so there is no real shame in that. Their biggest loss, though, is Leary. Jack Chambers led the Wolfpack to three field goals but no touchdowns in the loss to Cuse. NC State has had a week off to get ready for the home stretch. | |
