College football predictions: Second-chance expert picks for 2019 champion, playoffs and more
Taking a close, detailed and opinionated look at the top of college football at the halfway point
Seven weeks into the 2019 college football season, a lot has gone exactly as expected. Alabama is running through its schedule behind last year's Heisman Trophy front-runner at he midway point, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Ohio State and Oklahoma are looking like contenders under respective transfer quarterbacks Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts. The SEC and Big Ten have proven to be the dominant conferences, while the Pac-12 may have already played its way out of the College Football Playoff.
But there have also been a ton of surprises, too. Clemson and QB Trevor Lawrence are undefeated but losing trust from the public that they will indeed defend their national championship as originally anticipated. LSU and QB Joe Burrow have put together the most impressive start of any team, though Wisconsin and its dominant defense are not far behind. Penn State is also hanging around undefeated, and the rest of the top 10 -- Notre Dame, Florida and Georgia -- also appear to be contenders (depending on the week).
We at CBS Sports open each season by having our staff break down its picks for the College Football Playoff, 2019 national champion, Coach of the Year and Heisman Trophy winner. But we are human, and even we can get things wrong. That's why we're back at the midway point of the campaign with some second-chance expert picks. Here's how we believe the rest of the year will play out.
College Football Playoff predictions
While there is little argument which are the best teams in the nation this season, many of our experts clearly believe LSU will give Alabama a run -- at least for a CFP spot if not the only SEC selection in the field. Considering Clemson and Bama were clear favorites entering the season, it is interesting to see the Tigers not receive a single vote for the No. 1 overall seed and the Crimson Tide being left out of two sets of CFP selections entirely.
2019 national champion
Ohio State: Though the front half of the season, no team has looked more complete than the Buckeyes. They have the quarterback, the skill players, the bright offensive mind for a coach, a far improved defense with arguably the best player in the country (defensive end Chase Young), a loaded secondary, and yes, solid special teams players. They are as talented as any team in the country; somehow, in the post-Urban Meyer era, they are playing even better than before. Yes, anything can happen in college football, but I'm not sold that anyone in the Big Ten can compete with Ohio State's speed and athleticism. Maybe Penn State. And if you match Ohio State up with any of the playoff favorites today, I would take the Buckeyes straight up. This team is awfully impressive. -- Ben Kercheval (also Dennis Dodd, Tom Fornelli, Barton Simmons)
Alabama: There are three steps to Alabama winning the national championship -- beating LSU, winning the SEC Championship Game and avoiding big plays in the College Football Playoff. The first part of that sequence is the most challenging part of the equation, but I'll still side with the Tide -- especially in Tuscaloosa. The SEC East looks like a mess, so getting through Atlanta unscathed seems easier than it was last year. Once they're in the playoff, is there a defense that can stop them? Ohio State and Oklahoma have been better, but it's still a small sample size. Clemson hasn't exactly looked like a juggernaut. It's unlikely that LSU will find its way in if it already has a loss to the Tide on its resume. Let's not out-think the room. Alabama has the best coach in college football history, the most talented roster in the game, the best offense in program history and a chip on its shoulder after how last year ended. That's a recipe for a national title. -- Barrett Sallee (also Jerry Palm)
Oklahoma: What Oklahoma has with its 2019 squad is a group that match up and play across a variety of styles. Offensively, they've got both the Jalen Hurts-led power run game and an aerial attack with CeeDee Lamb starring as one of the most dynamic wide receiving threats in the country. Defensively the arrival of Alex Grinch has paid off with improvements in creating a solid pass rush and limiting explosive plays. The fact that Oklahoma no longer needs to overcompensate for a leaky defense or lean exclusively on the pass attack makes it flexible enough to withstand whatever might come their way in the College Football Playoff. Lincoln Riley has gotten the Sooners to base camp twice already. Now he's got a team with the kind of edge and physicality needed to get past the SEC and reach the top of the mountain. -- Chip Patterson
Despite five teams being chosen as CFP contenders, two of them -- Clemson and LSU -- are not seen as potential national champions. Ohio State was the overwhelming favorite with four votes, perhaps because of what is seen as an easier road to the CFP National Championship. Still, the Buckeyes are one of three undefeated Big Ten teams, and no one should be discounting Wisconsin or Penn State at this juncture.
Best team to miss the CFP
LSU: Do I believe LSU is one of the four best teams in the country? Yes. Do I believe that will be the case two months from now when the playoff field is selected? Probably. But even though the CFP Selection Committee touts its picks as the four "best" teams, anyone who's followed the process knows a your path matters as much as anything. LSU still has to beat Alabama or Auburn -- perhaps both -- to even get into the SEC Championship Game. And as much as I love what the Tigers are doing offensively, that defense has question marks. All it takes is one game for that offense to skip a beat. Obviously, I'm assuming there's chalk elsewhere: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma being undefeated or one-loss conference champions at the end of this. If that comes to fruition, I think LSU is No. 5. It'll be a close No. 5, mind you, but I'm going to side with conference champs. With that being my rationale, LSU could beat any one of those teams and win a title. There are, legitimately, about five or six teams that could win it all this season. That's actually a lot compared to most years. -- Ben Kercheval (also Jerry Palm, Barrett Sallee)
Alabama: Only four teams can make the College Football Playoff, and there are a lot of excellent candidates. I'm going on on a bit of a limb here with this prediction, but I don't think it's insane. LSU is good enough to beat Alabama in November. If it does, I have a hard time seeing Alabama get in the playoff over Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma if those three have the finishes I expect them to. So, for the first time in the history of the College Football Playoff, I think Alabama will be on the outside looking in. -- Tom Fornelli (also Chip Patterson)
Oklahoma: The Sooners look better than Clemson right now, but Oklahoma doesn't get to play Clemson's schedule. Oklahoma may be a top four team in college football. It may be a top two team. But this year, the Big 12 is the most perilous conference in the country for a national title contender. That's because just about every team in the conference has an "any given Saturday" type of quality that has created a field of upset land mines the Sooners have to navigate. The win over Texas was nice, but Oklahoma better not exhale. The season ends with a stretch of Kansas State, Iowa State, Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State that is ripe for an upset. There are friendlier roads to navigate and too many good candidates for Oklahoma to get out of the Big 12 with a playoff bid. -- Barton Simmons
Boise State: It has its Power Five win (on the road at Florida State). Otherwise, Boise State has boat raced the opposition. The road ahead simply isn't that hard. I've said this for years: Coach Bryan Harsin has the Broncos at a near-Chris Petersen level of excellence. It's just that the country doesn't notice. He's doing it with a true freshman quarterback (Hank Bachmeier) and the receiving combo of John Hightower and C.T. Thomas. That and a top 30 scoring defense. It comes down to this: Boise can go undefeated, but its remaining schedule doesn't come close to having it play another ranked team. -- Dennis Dodd
Midseason Coach of the Year
Ed Orgeron, LSU: Sometimes the third choice is the right choice. To say that Orgeron wasn't a popular choice to replace Les Miles is an understatement. Consider that a coach who was 3-21 in the SEC now coaches the No. 2 team in the country. Orgeron not only made the bold choice to go all in on the spread/RPOs, he stuck to it. That's something Miles never did. He took a chance on a 28-year-old receivers coach of the Saints (Joe Brady). He took a further chance that Brady would mesh with offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger. The ultimate irony is Joe Burrow running the offense that he was recruited to Ohio State run. Funny how life works out that way sometimes. Orgeron was always a great recruiter. He is now great at assembling a staff, getting a team ready and taking LSU to heights it seldom has been. -- Dennis Dodd (also Tom Fornelli, Chip Patterson, Barrett Sallee, Ben Kercheval)
Ryan Day, Ohio State: Nevermind the burden of taking over a program in the shadows of an all-time great like Meyer. Any coach would want that burden. Let's talk about what he's done since he got the keys. Day turned over his defensive staff, poached two top-tier asssitants from his biggest rival and empowered them to shake up a defense. Last year, that defense was 95th in the country in plays of 20 or more yards allowed. This year, it's fifth in the same category. On offense, Day lost a first-round draft pick at quarterback that was a statue in the pocket, recruited an entirely new quarterback room from the transfer portal and repositioned his offense to play to the athletic strengths of Justin Fields. Now a former five-star quarterback that had attracted doubters looks like a Heisman Trophy candidate in his first year in the system. Now an Ohio State program that had slipped behind the Clemson/Alabama tier looks like it may just be better than both of them. -- Barton Simmons (also Jerry Palm)
Orgeron was the majority selection for midseason coach of the year last year as well. LSU went 3-2 over its next five games to end the regular season.
Heisman Trophy winner (so far)
Joe Burrow, QB, LSU: This isn't a vote against Tagovailoa, Hurts or Fields. It's a choice to reflect just how good Burrow has been through the first half of the season. He has the highest passing efficiency in the country, and he's second in touchdowns. He's done all this against a tougher schedule than those other QBs have. He's also slightly more responsible for his own success than those others. If you want to get into the advanced stats, Burrow is averaging 7.2 air yards per pass attempt. None of those other three names I mentioned are averaging more than 6.4. Heck, Tagovailoa is averaging only 3.7, barely more than half of Burrow. He's been the best QB in the country on one of the best teams in the country. Seems like a no-brainer to me. -- Tom Fornelli (also Dennis Dodd, Chip Patterson, Barton Simmons)
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama: Hurts, Fields and Burrow have infected the college football world with "Tua Fatigue." Don't let them. All Tagovailoa has done is throw 27 touchdowns, only one interception and accelerated the evolution of the already-dynamic Alabama offense. What's even more impressive is that defenses are properly playing Alabama on slants in the RPO game, and Tagovailoa is still fitting the ball into his talented receivers. Like last year, he's putting up video game numbers without playing full games, and he has transformed Alabama to a team that forces opponents to score 40 to even have a chance and has the quick strike ability to put games out of reach in the blink of an eye. Without Tagovailoa, this offense wouldn't be anywhere close to what it is this year. -- Barrett Sallee (also Ben Kercheval)
Jalen Hurts, QB, Oklahoma: Riley has worked his magic again. You should not be surprised at the success Hurts, the Alabama transfer quarterback, has found at Oklahoma, home of the previous two Heisman Trophy winners. Hurts is among the leaders in nearly every relevant statistical category for quarterbacks in leading the Sooners to a 6-0 start on the season. He is ranked first in the nation in yards per attempt and second in passing efficiency and yards per completion. What sets him apart from everyone else is that he is also Oklahoma's leading rusher and 12th nationally. Only Navy QB Malcolm Perry, who runs the triple option, has more rushing yards from the quarterback position than Hurts. He is in the top 10 in both passing and rushing touchdowns. Hurts has proven to be the most versatile and productive offensive player in the country so far, and if the Heisman were given out today, he should be the one to receive it. -- Jerry Palm
