College football quarterback play will be more crucial than ever during unprecedented 2020 season

QBs are crucial to success in the modern era, especially with less time to prepare

If you want to compete for championships in the modern era of college football, elite quarterback is a necessary ingredient. That hasn't always been the case, in fact as recently as the BCS era we saw teams not only win conference titles but national championships with quarterbacks who went on to be drafted in the fourth round or later, if they were drafted at all. From 1998 to 2013, only five national championship-winning quarterbacks were first round picks in the NFL Draft. 

Ken Dorsey, Craig Krenzel, Chris Leak, Matt Flynn and AJ McCarron even won BCS National Championship Game MVP honors, but none of them went higher than the fifth round in the NFL Draft. They were all phenomenal college players and team leaders, but they were bus drivers for rosters that were loaded with first and second round talent elsewhere. 

The idea of mavericks and bus drivers is something we've explored often on the Cover 3 Podcast, with Barton Simmons introducing the idea a few years back as a way to separate not only the quarterbacks in college football but the teams with championship aspirations. Things have changed in the College Football Playoff era, where quarterback play is arguably the single most defining characteristic of success at the highest level. Of the 19 quarterbacks that have started in a College Football Playoff game, 10 of them have first- or second-round talents and those 10 players have combined for 13 playoff wins and four of the six national championships, including every title since 2016. 

Now as we approach the strange existence that will be the 2020 college football season, it seems like the quarterback will be more important than ever. Every team in the country has dealt with unprecedented disruption, the loss of the normal spring practice and distorted offseason workout and fall camp schedules. It is going to make it even tougher on teams that don't have elite play under center. The 2020 season is not going to be one that favors the teams who try to out-scheme or out-wit their opponents. The disruption may contribute to more parity than we're used to, but as the country moves to a conference-by-conference focus the teams that end up at the top of the standings are likely going to be the ones that have a steadying presence at the most important position on the field. 

Earlier this offseason, we looked at the quarterback landscape through he lens of the national championship race, identifying the teams with championship-caliber quarterback play and the players who might make a "Joe Burrow-like" leap. After all, Burrow was considered a fifth-round talent prior to his record-setting 2019 season, so it's important to leave that possibility open for players to take a step forward and carry their team along in the process. 

Now that we are in a world where the focus will be on conference play for much of the fall, we wanted to take that same quarterback analysis and apply them to each league looking at conference title contenders. There are two tiers we will split them into: headliners and barometers. Headliners are expected to perform at an elite level that can elevate their team during the ups and downs of this strange season. Barometers, meanwhile, don't carry the same level of expectation but have shown the potential to be a top-tier quarterback in their respective league. 

ACC

• Headliners: Trevor Lawrence (Clemson), Sam Howell (North Carolina), D'Eriq King (Miami) 
• Barometers: Micale Cunningham (Louisville), James Blackman (Florida State)

The most intriguing aspect of projecting Lawrence's 2020 is how a player with overflowing talent leading one of the most successful programs of the College Football Playoff era will be needed to elevate the Tigers to championship status. The loss of Justyn Ross leaves Clemson as unproven at the wide receiver position as its been in years, though they are far from barren when it comes to potential replacements. Lawrence can keep the passing attack viable, but decision-making becomes even more important without the likes of Ross and Tee Higgins as certain targets to win 50-50 balls. 

Now, obviously Clemson is deserving of its status as a heavy favorite, but the absence of divisions has really opened up the conversation for the team that might meet the Tigers in the ACC Championship Game. The North Carolina hype of 2020 has largely been a result of having elite quarterback play from Howell, who has his top receivers and running backs returning for what should be one of the best offenses in the conference. King will have to shoulder a comparatively heavier load with less certainty at the skill positions at Miami beyond tight end Brevin Jordan, but luckily for Canes fans, the former Houston star has already showcased the ability to put an offense on his back with his playmaking ability. Cunningham is a wild card here after taking great steps forward in 2019 with Scott Satterfield and returning alongside Javian Hawkins and Tutu Atwell in another promising offensive attack while Blackman looks to bounce back in what should be a better fit of an offense under Mike Norvell and Kenny Dillingham. 

Big Ten

• Headliners: Justin Fields (Ohio State), Tanner Morgan (Minnesota)
• Barometers: Sean Clifford (Penn State), Jack Coan (Wisconsin)

With the Big Ten releasing its conference schedule this week, all eyes are going to be on Columbus and whether Ohio State can capitalize on its status as the undisputed favorite to win the league. Fields is the headliner and most important player in the league, but he's not the only player on that elite tier with the ability to singlehandedly raise his team's level of play to championship contention. Minnesota might have a new offensive coordinator and new starters at wide receiver after Tyler Johnson's departure and Rashod Bateman's decision to opt out of the 2020 season, but Morgan is an NFL talent who can still keep the Gophers in contention to win the Big Ten West and make it to the conference championship game. 

But the most proven power in that division has been Wisconsin, where Coan will be relied upon as more than a bus driver now that Jonathan Taylor is off to the NFL. Coan was solid in 2019, but he's going to need to take a step forward to give the Badgers a chance to repeat as division champs and have another crack at the Buckeyes in Indianapolis. A similar step forward is what Penn State fans are hoping to see out of Clifford, who gets Morgan's old offensive coordinator and hopefully will have better health through a season where the Nittany Lions will get Ohio State at home in an opportunity to steal the Big Ten East from the conference favorites. 

Clifford is the prime example of a player who could totally change his team's projections and fortunes with a leap. Penn State is loaded in the backfield, has one of the best tight ends in all of college football and a defense that's certainly playoff worthy. The 2019 version of Clifford was good enough to make it to the New Year's Six, but when the competition is Justin Fields and the Buckeyes, he's going to need to be markedly better to lead the team to Indianapolis. 

Big 12

• Headliners: Sam Ehlinger (Texas), Brock Purdy (Iowa State)
• Barometers: Charlie Brewer (Baylor), Spencer Rattler (Oklahoma), Spencer Sanders (Oklahoma State)

First thing's first, because I know Oklahoma fans think I'm the worst: Rattler is an unproven entity in terms at the championship level. Immensely talented with a high ceiling, the former five-star quarterback, who will be the first Lincoln Riley starter recruited to Oklahoma out of high school, falls into the category of difference-maker because of the unknown. If he steps on to the field and dominates, then he has taken the leap that Riley and Oklahoma's staff was hoping for when they brought Jalen Hurts in to lead the offense in 2019 while Rattler settled into the program. He's a big name and there are high expectations, but compared to Ehlinger and Purdy, the responsibility of Rattler individually lifting the Sooners to championship contention is less certain. Texas and Iowa State need to have their established star quarterbacks playing their best football to have a chance to finish in one of the top two spots in the standings at the end of the year. Oklahoma may be able to get there with Rattler or Tanner Mordecai, we just won't know until the 2020 edition of Riley's offense hits the field. 

Sanders factors in as a big piece of Oklahoma State's 2020 hype train after earning Big 12 Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, and if he takes another big step forward, he and Chuba Hubbard could end up being one of the best quarterback-running back duos in all of college football. We've also included Brewer here thanks to his experience and the potential for success running a new spread attack led by Larry Fedora and Jorge Munoz, the passing game coordinator who joined Dave Aranda in the move after working as an analyst for LSU's high-powered offense in 2019. 

Pac-12 

• Headliners: Kedon Slovis (USC), Jayden Daniels (Arizona State), Dorian Thompson-Robinson (UCLA)
• Barometers: Anthony Brown/Tyler Shough (Oregon), Jake Bentley (Utah), Chase Garbers (Cal)

The Pac-12 South is where we'll find the quarterbacks with the most individual impact on their team's success during this strange season. Slovis has clearly entrenched himself as one of the top quarterbacks in the country and the return of both offensive coordinator Graham Harrell as well as a loaded wide receiver room set up for him to lead one of the most prolific offenses in the country. The weight gets a little bit heavier in terms of responsibility for team success as we work our way to Daniels and Thompson-Robinson. Daniels in particular has been stellar in clutch situations for the Sun Devils putting the team on his back, and while he hasn't experienced as much success, DTR has had to do much of the same during his time with Chip Kelly at UCLA. These are all high-ceiling players who carry the load for their respective offenses, and in a season with so many unknowns, there are likely to be more game situations than usual where unique playmaking ability will be the deciding factor between winning and losing. 

The weight seems a little lighter at places like Oregon, Utah and Cal, where especially strong defenses can lead the way in the race for conference title contention. If the Ducks can get elite play out of Brown or Shough, it would be the final piece of what otherwise appears to be a playoff contender in Eugene. Similarly, there is an opportunity for Bentley to revive his career after departing from South Carolina and Garbers to lead Cal to its first-ever Pac-12 title game should another step in their development be in the cards for 2020. 

SEC

• Headliners: Kyle Trask (Florida), Kellen Mond (Texas A&M), Jamie Newman/J.T. Daniels (Georgia), Mac Jones/Bryce Young (Alabama) 
• Barometers: Bo Nix (Auburn), Myles Brennan (LSU)

This is another conversation where the focus needs to shift from "how good are you" to "how good you need to be." Alabama and Georgia need their starting quarterbacks to be mavericks to win a national championship, but they can probably contend for an SEC title with bus driver-caliber performances thanks to the immense amount of talent elsewhere. That's not the case at Florida or Texas A&M, which have established starters at quarterback that will carry much more responsibility for their team's collective success. Trask already took a big step forward under Dan Mullen's guidance in 2019, but he'll need to raise his level of play again to carry a group of skill position players that, other than star tight end Kyle Pitts, brings some question marks. Throughout his career, Mond has been a mercurial talent with top-shelf play in flashes but has yet to put together an entire season worthy of being considered among the best quarterbacks in the league. 

Nix and Brennan carry uncertain expectations and goalposts that can be moved depending on how the season unfolds. Brennan will have Ja'Marr Chase and Terrace Marshall in tow as he attempts to carry on the new spread tradition at LSU, but I don't think anyone is expecting him to be Joe Burrow nor the Tigers to be competing for the national championship after losing more than a dozen of last year's stars to the NFL. Nix arguably has a higher ceiling individually though his supporting cast is not quite what Brennan has in Baton Rouge, but the addition of Chad Morris to the offensive staff brings plenty of intrigue. If Nix can level up, Auburn could be much more of a factor in the SEC West than most experts seem to believe right now.