Conference play begins, and the games get bigger
Now that conference play begins in earnest around the country, some bigger games are on the Week 5 college football schedule.
Ah, conference play is finally under way. Oh, sure, there have been a smattering of conference games already, but most leagues are fully into the conference schedule this week. That means some big games with not just national championship implications, but conference championship ones as well. Also, familiarity doesn't just breed contempt, it breeds upsets. We're not likely to have another week like last week.
Speaking of last week, I was 4-0 straight up, but 2-2 vs the spread. For the season, I'm now 15-4 straight up and 12-7 against the spread.
LSU at Georgia (-3): The thing that has been holding LSU back the last few years has been inconsistent QB play. If Zach Mettenberger plays well, the Tigers could win the whole thing. This is their biggest test yet, but you could make the case that LSU has played the best football of anyone in the SEC so far. LSU wins, covers.
Wisconsin at Ohio State (-7): Braxton Miller returns for the Buckeyes, and that's a good thing, right? Right?? Kenny Guiton has been terrific in his place, but there's no Wally Pipp-ing Miller. Melvin Gordon is the stud RB du jour for the Badgers, who leads the nation in rushing. His running mate, James White, is 10th. Wisconsin won't make it easy on Ohio State. Buckeyes win, Badgers cover.
Oklahoma at Notre Dame (+3.5): The Irish defense hasn't been as good as expected, but they looked better against Michigan State's woeful offense than they did the week before against Purdue's woeful offense. Tommy Rees and the Irish offense has also been hit and miss. Blake Bell took over for Trevor Knight at QB for Oklahoma and lit up Tulsa in his first start two weeks ago. Oklahoma wins, ND covers.
Ole Miss at Alabama (-14.5): Ole Miss was impressive winning at Texas two weeks ago, and has also won at Vanderbilt. Winning at Tuscaloosa is a little different task. Alabama hasn't been dominant in any sense. Last week's 31-6 win over Colorado State was closer than the score would indicate. Ole Miss will have have their moments, but their youth will do them in. Alabama wins, covers.
USC at Arizona State (-4): This game is important because the loser is surely done in the Pac-12 South. The Sun Devils are coming off a whipping at Stanford, while USC has righted things at least a little bit since the Trojans loss to Washington State. I don't buy that, though. I picked ASU to win the division, and this will be a step in that direction. Arizona State wins, covers.
Northern Illinois at Purdue (+3.5): The Huskies were in the BCS last year with one loss. However, their performance in that game likely means that they (or anyone else) will have to go undefeated to get that right this season. This week's game may be the toughest one left before the MAC title game. Northern has already won at Iowa, but has struggled, especially defensively, in all three of their wins, including last week's victory over FCS Eastern Illinois. Purdue's offense is third worst in the country in yards per game, primarily because of a wildly inaccurate quarterback, so something has to give. Purdue wins, covers.
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