There are no sure things when it comes to gambling, but if we look at the history of how teams have performed, we can see trends emerge. I've gone through college football data since the beginning of the 2008 season in search of these trends, and I've found plenty of them.
Today, I share with you the things I discovered in the Big 12. Now, merely following these trends will not assure you riches beyond your wildest dreams, but they will arm you with useful information to help you make more informed decisions when putting your money on the line.
All records listed below are against the spread (ATS)
Big 12 play
Big 12 vs. Everyone
|ACC||Big Ten||Pac-12||SEC||Independents & G5||FCS|
|76-53 (.589) -- The Cowboys have been the most reliable play in the Big 12 over the last 10 years, but you want to target them when they're favored. Oklahoma State is 60-35 ATS in that span, and while it's reliable everywhere, it's even better in Stillwater. The Cowboys are 36-19 ATS at home.|
|73-58-1 (.557) -- While the Sooners have done well enough overall, you want to avoid them in neutral site games. When playing at home or in a true road game, the Sooners are 64-44-1 ATS. That includes a remarkable 20-10 ATS record in nonconference games. If you're looking for a trend outside the spread, here's a juicy one: Overs are 35-21-1 in Oklahoma true road games.|
|69-56-1 (.552) -- Bet Kansas State as an underdog. The Wildcats are 37-24 ATS as a dog over the last 10 seasons, and 34-19 ATS as a dog in Big 12 games. It's even better outside Manhattan, as the Cats are 21-9 ATS as road underdogs in the Big 12.|
|64-55-3 (.538) -- Iowa State's record ATS is skewed by last season. The Cyclones went 11-2 ATS last year, meaning they were 53-53-3 the nine seasons before. Fortunately, we have a trend when it comes to the total. The Under has proven profitable with the Clones over the years, as they have gone 67-51-2 since 2008. When you dig deeper, though, you see that the Under is 34-26-2 when Iowa State is at home, and it's 21-12 in nonconference games.|
|67-58-1 (.536) -- Baylor had been a behemoth ATS from 2011-13 (27-12), but the bookmakers and public have caught up to it, as it's only 15-23 the last three seasons. So it's best to avoid spread bets on the Bears for now. We see similar trends on totals. The Over is 45-24 during the last 10 years during Baylor home games, but that's leveled off the last couple of seasons, going 6-10. Frankly, there isn't a reliable trend involving Baylor at the moment.|
|63-58-3 (.521) -- When it comes to gambling, a lot of the time you want to go against the conventional wisdom. And then there are the times where things are exactly what they seem. This is one of those times as Overs in Texas Tech games have gone 70-51-1 since 2008. While it's still profitable when the Red Raiders are at home (35-29), you want to target it when Tech's on the road. It's 35-22-1 in road games.|
|63-64-1 (.496) -- In the Big 12 where offenses reign, even through years of inconsistent results on the field, Texas has typically been one of the best defensive teams in the conference on a yearly basis. So it's no surprise to you that the Under has gone 77-50-1 in Texas games. It's particularly profitable in Big 12 games, where the Under is 55-32-1 in Texas games, including a ridiculous 30-14-1 in Texas home games.|
|37-41 (.474) -- This is TCU's mark since joining the Big 12 in 2012. While it's been unremarkable ATS overall, there's a clear separation with the Horned Frogs. As favorites, they're 23-32 ATS; as underdogs, they're 14-9. Going a step further, you want to fade TCU when it's favored in Big 12 games because it's gone 12-22 ATS as one since joining the conference.|
|48-71 (.403) -- This isn't exactly rocket science, as clearly, betting against Kansas on a weekly basis has proven profitable. Still, some spots are better than others. For instance, at home or a neutral site, Kansas has gone 32-36 ATS, but on the road, the Jayhawks are 16-35. On the road in Big 12 games is even worse, as they're 12-29 ATS, meaning if you bet against Kansas every time it's on the road against a Big 12 team you'd win 71 percent of the time.|
|30-46-1 (.395) -- You're probably surprised to see West Virginia has a worse win percentage ATS than Kansas does since it joined the Big 12 in 2012. I know I was. It's a smaller sample size, though, which means things could balance out. Still, you should know that the Mountaineers are 16-22-1 ATS at home and 1-9 ATS at a neutral site since joining the Big 12. Now is when I tell you that West Virginia opens the 2018 season in a neutral site game against Tennessee. It's currently a 9.5-point favorite.|