Only two FBS college football games are set for Thanksgiving in 2021. In the first matchup, the San Jose State Spartans welcome the Fresno State Bulldogs to town for a Mountain West matchup. San Jose State is seeking bowl eligibility with a 5-6 overall record this season. Fresno State is 8-3 overall and 5-2 in Mountain West play, with four wins in the last five contests. Fresno State needs a win in this game, and then a San Diego State loss to Boise State on Friday, to win the West division.
Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET in San Jose, Calif. The latest Fresno State vs. San Jose State odds list the Bulldogs at -7. The over-under, or total number of points expected, is set at 53. Before making any San Jose State vs. Fresno State picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 13 of the 2021 season on a 39-25 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has locked in on Fresno State vs. SJSU and just revealed its picks and CFB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the CFB odds and betting lines for SJSU vs. Fresno State:
- Fresno State vs. San Jose State spread: Fresno State -7
- Fresno State vs. San Jose State over-under: 53 points
- Fresno State vs. San Jose State money line: Fresno State -290, SJSU +235
- FRES: The Bulldogs are 7-4 against the spread this season
- SJSU: The Spartans are 5-6 against the spread in 2021
Why Fresno State can cover
The Bulldogs are led by the Mountain West's most prolific offense, averaging more than 460 yards and 33 points per game. However, Fresno State also has an impressive defense, and it will be on display in this matchup. The Bulldogs are allowing only 344.3 total yards per game in 2021, and Fresno State is giving up only 21.3 points per game this season. Fresno State is above-average against the pass, yielding only 211.2 yards per game, and the Bulldogs lead the Mountain West in allowing a 53.7 percent completion rate.
Opponents are only averaging 6.9 yards per pass attempt against Fresno State, and the Bulldogs land in the top four of the Mountain West in rushing yards allowed per game (133.1) and per carry (3.7). San Jose State has notable strengths, but the Spartans are second-worst in the Mountain West in scoring, averaging 21 points per game, and San Jose State is completing only 52.4 percent of passes this season.
Why San Jose State can cover
San Jose State's defense is playing quite well this season, and that is evident in the numbers. The Spartans are allowing only 360.8 total yards per game, a strongly above-average figure, and San Jose State is giving up 6.7 yards per pass attempt. The Spartans have 27 sacks defensively, and they are also excellent against the run. Opponents are averaging only 134.9 rushing yards per game this season, and San Jose State is holding teams to just 3.5 yards per carry.
Junior linebacker Kyle Harmon leads the Mountain West with 122 tackles in 2021, and San Jose State also may have the edge in special teams. The Spartans rank in the top three of the Mountain West in punting average (44.1 yards per attempt) and net punting average (41.3 yards per attempt) this season.
How to make Fresno State vs. San Jose State picks
The model is going under on the total, projecting 51 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins San Jose State vs. Fresno State? And which side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model on a 39-25 run on its top-rated college football side picks, and find out.