Georgia State vs. Arkansas State odds, line: Picks, predictions from model that called upset of West Virginia

A highly anticipated Sun Belt contest kicks off Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET when the Arkansas State Red Wolves host the Georgia State Panthers. Both squads are coming off tough losses and will be eager to get back into the win column. The Panthers were knocked off by Troy 37-20 in their most recent game two weeks ago. Arkansas State was rolled by conference powerhouse Appalachian State 35-9 last week. The Red Wolves opened as 14-point home favorites in the Arkansas State vs. Georgia State odds. The over-under has risen from 54 to 56.5. Before you make any Arkansas State vs. Georgia State picks, check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say. 

The advanced computer model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. In the past three years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors. The model made some huge calls in Week 7, including nailing Iowa State's outright upset of No. 6 West Virginia. It also picked Virginia (+7) in the Cavaliers' huge upset of No. 16 Miami, and recommended LSU (+7) against the spread for its upset of No. 2 Georgia. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Georgia State vs. Arkansas State 10,000 times to produce a strong against-the-spread pick that's only available over at SportsLine.

If the Red Wolves plan to win -- or at least cover -- Thursday, they will need another strong performance by quarterback Justice Hansen. The senior has thrown for 1,538 yards for the season and 11 touchdowns. In his previous start against Appalachian State, the signal-caller struggled against a well-designed defense that cloaked coverages. He was a mediocre 25 for 40 for 209 yards and was intercepted three times.

Running back Marcel Murray leads the Red Wolves with 298 ground yards and two scores. Accompanying Murray in the backfield is Warren Ward. The 5-foot-5 senior was held to just 20 yards last week. In his career, he has rushed for more than 2,500 yards and has 18 touchdowns. Wide receiver Kirk Merritt is the team's most legitimate receiving threat. The junior wideout leads the squad in receptions (38) and receiving yards (311), but has found the end zone only once this season.

Despite Georgia State's 2-4 record, it can win behind experienced quarterback Dan Ellington. The 6-3 junior has thrown for 1,224 yards and five scores for the season. If the Panthers can maintain a lead, Ellington, a dual threat, forces defenses to reconsider blitzing as his agility can produce big plays in the open field.

Panthers running back Seth Paige is in the midst of a solid rookie season. He's netting 7.1 yards a carry on his 227 yards and has found paydirt three times. His backfield mate Tra Barnett is most effective in keeping the chains moving on short-distance downs. Georgia State relies on its passing game for big plays, and its biggest play-maker is wideout Penny Hart. The junior hauled in six passes for 128 yards two weeks ago and leads the squad with 395 receiving yards.

We can tell you the model likes the Under, and it also has revealed a strong pick against the spread, saying one side hits over 55 percent of the time. 

Who wins Georgia State vs. Arkansas State? And which side covers over 55 percent of the time? Join SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the computer model that has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors.

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