Ed Orgeron's livelihood is about to flash before his eyes.
Either way, Saturday night in Death Valley is likely to be a turning point in the LSU interim coach's colorful career. Beat Alabama -- or even play the Crimson Tide close -- and a case can be made for athletic director Joe Alleva already having his new coach.
Lose by, say, the average margin of Alabama's previous eight opponents (29 points) and more than a game is lost. Orgeron then may become a short timer.
Who says it never rains in Tiger Stadium?
Yes, complications continue to mount at LSU in a coaching search that turns 40 (days old) this week. Presumed Les Miles replacement Tom Herman (at Houston) has lost two games, a College Football Playoff berth and likely the American Athletic Conference. Florida State's Jimbo Fisher -- LSU's former offensive coordinator -- is no sure thing to come either.
In other words, Alleva is dangerously close to where he was last November -- uncertain about the man who will lead the football program. That is, unless you believe a veteran charismatic leader has emerged right under the AD's nose.
But you don't necessarily fire the winningest coach in the school's history only to walk down the hall and elevate the defensive line coach.
Alleva might have no choice if LSU beats Alabama on Saturday. Orgeron has experience running a program as Ole Miss' former head coach. He has three national championship rings at two different programs. Orgeron has been on the sidelines for 15 bowls as an assistant.
At his core, Coach O is an ace recruiter. He is also a beloved born-and-bred Cajun, which is attractive to a large number of folks who are going to be buying Tigers tickets. For the native of Larose, Louisiana, his culture is theirs. While at Southern California, he once spoke of stuffing a cooler of frozen shrimp in the overhead on a flight back to Los Angeles.
You can take the boy out of Louisiana ...
Complicated? In the state's politically charged atmosphere where power plays and backroom deals are the norm, the LSU search is about to get really interesting.
If Alleva is perceived to have whiffed on the hire, it's his head next.
"LSU is an interesting job because it's knocking on the door of being an elite job and there's only so many elite coaches," a source in the coaching search industry told CBS Sports.
"Here's the problem LSU is going to have," the source added. "Tom Herman is going to want to know who's in charge and how much heat is on Joe. So is Jimbo. 'Joe, are you going to be there? I don't want to take a job if you're not going to be there next year.'"
Elevating Orgeron takes that conversation out of play.
Has the shine worn off Herman just a bit? Is it easier for Fisher to win championships at Florida State? November is upon us, which means the coaching carousel is just beginning to spin.
With that in mind, CBS Sports reached out to college sports administrators to ask how they would handle the LSU opening. A top SEC job that will have been open for more than nine weeks by kickoff of the SEC Championship Game on Dec 2.
A person familiar with the search firm process shared the following with CBS Sports: "You've got to come out of the end of your regular season with your 1A and 1B [coaches' choices]. You've got to know if it clicks and if the money is there [enough to say] 'We're not getting below 1B.'
"If I'm Joe ... I would be talking to everybody that I want and basically just saying, 'What questions do you have, and when it comes time to do this officially, it's going to move fast. Where's your wife on this?'"
What about talking to replacement candidates directly during the season?
"If [Alleva's] got any kind of relationship with the coach, you talk to him, otherwise you talk to the [agent] and get to the coach."
One industry source said the "wink-wink, nudge-nudge" protocol in talking to a sitting head coach is this: Phone conversations are considered informal, more of a preliminary interview. Once a coach agrees to meet in person, then the school has to ask his athletic director for permission.
From a former athletic director: "I don't believe any coach that carries himself with a high ethical standard has [had] contact with LSU at this time. But we'd all be naïve that there hasn't been discussions with agents and confidants."
From another coaching firm source: "Look, you have to start developing a relationship because you've got eight weeks to do it. I'd talk to [Herman] every Sunday night for 45 minutes."
What if Herman goes to Texas and Fisher stays at FSU? You don't fire Miles to not get one of those two guys, right?
"I would think not," the source said. "But you've got to have your 'basement candidate.' If all hell breaks loose, we're not dropping below this guy. Who is that? I don't know."
How does the next guy follow up Saban and Miles at LSU? (Earlier this season I suggested perhaps LSU has peaked.)
"Yes, there's a challenge. [Some people] perceive it to be harder to follow. They've also showed the true potential of the job," said the former AD. "There is so much talent in that state. There's money available to build facilities, to do things the right way."
Added a veteran SEC talent evaluator: "You make one call to Jimmy Sexton. Jimbo Fisher to Texas. Tom Herman to LSU."
Sexton is the super agent whose list of high-powered coaching clients are sure to influence any college football offseason. Sexton is Fisher's agent. Herman's agent is Trace Armstrong, who recently left CAA (Sexton's parent firm) to join Athletes First.
The end of Art Briles: Baylor's embattled former coach cannot coach at a major-college level again. That was assured beginning when the Wall Street Journal stripped away a large part of the mystery surrounding the school's sexual assault scandal. "60 Minutes Sports" followed this week with even more damning information.
Before that a narrative had emerged lately that Briles might be able to rehab his image enough to perhaps even get a Power Five job. Not now. We know the depth of the inattention, corruption, the cover up regarding scores of women.
"There was a cultural issue there that was putting winning football games above everything else ... And that is not OK," a regent told WSJ.
The moment Briles accepted a buyout -- one source said it was $26 million -- his wasn't a simple firing. It was an exercise in buying Briles' silence and keeping Baylor out of court.
The focus was -- and always should have been -- on the reported 17 women who reported domestic or sexual assault, including four gang rapes, involving Baylor players since 2011.
Colleague Jon Solomon pointed out on Saturday that Baylor's loss to Texas was a net win for the entire Big 12. Briles' lawyer suggested the regents who spoke out had violated some sort of the "disparagement agreement".
Good for them. Baylor cannot get past this until the entire truth is known. And the first thought should always be with the victims. Briles' career, while not a mere footnote, doesn't compare.
"There's still the sense that [Briles] doesn't get it," a person with experience identifying coaching candidates for schools told CBS Sports. "He doesn't get the enormity of what's occurred."
A November to remember: While we wring out hands over the first release of the CFP Rankings, consider this possibility: All four current Power Five undefeated teams (Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, Washington) can "afford" a loss this month and still make the playoff. As long as that loss doesn't keep them from playing in their conference championship games, why not?
The committee has shown a preclusion to favor conference champs. Anything less than a two-loss league champion likely keeps other challengers out. The committee hasn't yet allowed in a second team from a conference -- in other words a team that hasn't so much as won its division.
That's bad news for No. 4 Texas A&M and No. 7 Louisville. As it stands, both would lose tiebreakers to Alabama and Clemson, respectively.
Tigers and Tide and Bears, oh my: Since the 2008 LSU-Alabama game, a combined 105 players from those teams have been drafted. Twenty-five of them have gone in the first round.
The next wave in contract negotiations: Just wondering, but are coaches going to demand bonuses based on weekly standing in the College Football Playoff Rankings? If so, Kevin Sumlin (Texas A&M at No. 4 despite losing by 19 to Alabama) and James Franklin (Penn State at No. 12 despite two losses by a combined 42 points) could collect big time this week.
File this under irony: Embattled Texas coach Charlie Strong was the Bobby Dodd Trophy national coach of the week.
