Kentucky vs. Mississippi State odds, predictions, line: 2019 college football picks from proven model on 30-10 run

The Mississippi State Bulldogs look to take advantage of the home field when they face the Kentucky Wildcats in a Southeastern Conference college football game in Starkville, Miss. The Bulldogs (2-1), who finished fourth in the SEC West at 4-4 and 8-5 overall in 2018, were 6-1 at home last season, while the Wildcats (2-1), who finished second in the SEC East at 5-3 and 10-3 overall, have won two of the past three games in the series. The game is slated to kick off at 4 p.m. ET at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Kentucky won last year's game, 28-7, at Lexington, Ky. The Bulldogs are favored by six points in the latest Kentucky vs. Mississippi State odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 48. You'll want to see the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model before laying any Kentucky vs. Mississippi State picks down.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. Over the past four-plus years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $5,310 profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated spread picks.

The model enters Week 4 of the 2019 college football season on a blistering 30-10 run on its top-rated picks. It also called Kentucky (+9.5) covering against No. 9 Florida and No. 5 Oklahoma (-23.5) covering against UCLA in Week 3. Anybody who has been following it is way up.

Now the model has dialed in on Kentucky vs. Mississippi State. We can tell you it is leaning under, and it also says one side of the spread cashes in over 50 percent of simulations. That one is only available at SportsLine.

Mississippi State is 10-6 under second-year Coach Joe Moorhead and has had two straight winning seasons and eight in the past nine. The Bulldogs have qualified for nine straight bowls and 10 in the past 12 seasons. They have beaten the Wildcats in eight of the past 10 games in the series, including four straight at home. 

Junior linebacker Erroll Thompson (6-1, 250) has been living up to his lofty expectations in helping the Bulldogs defense put the clamps on opposing offenses. Thompson was included on the preseason watch list for the 25th annual Chuck Bednarek Award, which is given to college football's defensive player of the year. Thompson has 23 tackles – 11 solo – with a fumble recovery. In three seasons, he has 153 tackles – 63 solo – six sacks, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery, two interceptions and one pass defensed.

But just because the Bulldogs have had some recent success doesn't guarantee they'll cover the Kentucky vs. Mississippi State spread on Saturday.

That's because the Wildcats have had recent success away from home, going 3-2 on the road last year. Junior quarterback Sawyer Smith has stepped in following starter Terry Wilson's season-ending knee injury in Week 2 and hasn't missed a beat. He completed 23-of-35 passes for 267 yards and two TDs in a 29-21 loss to No. 9 Florida last week. He was Troy's backup quarterback as a freshman in 2016, redshirted in 2017, and played 13 games for the Trojans last season, taking over as the starter seven games into the season.

Junior wide receiver Lynn Bowden Jr. has been Kentucky's top target with 20 receptions for 201 yards and one touchdown. For his career, he has 101 receptions for 1,156 yards and six touchdowns, including five last season. 

So who wins Mississippi State vs. Kentucky? And which side of the spread can you bank on in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mississippi State vs. Kentucky spread to jump on Saturday, all from the advanced model that is up more than $5,300 on its top-rated college football picks, and find out.

Join our Pick'em Challenge and compete for $1,000 each week.

Our Latest Stories