After a marquee victory over Appalachian State last week, the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns hit the road for a Thursday night matchup in conference play. Louisiana is 5-1 this season, including a 2-0 mark in Sun Belt action, and the Ragin' Cajuns take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves. Arkansas State has lost the last five games, struggling mightily in 2021. The Ragin' Cajuns won the 2020 matchup between the two teams by a 27-20 margin. 

Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Jonesboro, Ark. The latest Louisiana vs. Arkansas State odds from Caesars Sportsbook give the road team an 18-point edge. The over-under for total points is set at 70, up three points from the opening line. Before finalizing any Arkansas State vs. Louisiana picks, you need to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 8 of the 2021 season on a 22-9 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in on Louisiana vs. Arkansas State and revealed its picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college football odds and trends for Arkansas State vs. Louisiana:  

  • Louisiana vs. Arkansas State spread: Louisiana -18
  • Louisiana vs. Arkansas State over-under: 70 points
  • Louisiana vs. Arkansas State money line: Louisiana -900, Ark. St. +600
  • LA: The Ragin' Cajuns are 2-4 against the spread this season
  • ASU: The Red Wolves are 3-3 against the spread in 2021
Featured Game | Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

Why Louisiana can cover

The Ragin' Cajuns are red-hot right now, including a supremely impressive performance against Appalachian State a week ago. On its own, Louisiana appears trustworthy and consistent, but the Ragin' Cajuns are considerable favorites in this game in part due to the scuffles of Arkansas State. Offensively, the Red Wolves are very strong in the passing game, but they have issues on the ground. Arkansas State is second-worst in the Sun Belt in averaging 2.9 yards per carry, and the Red Wolves are last in the league in averaging only 79.5 rushing yards per game. 

Arkansas State has also allowed more sacks (24) than any other team in the Sun Belt. On the other side, the Red Wolves have been very porous defensively, including the worst marks in the Sun Belt in total defense (584.0 yards per game) and scoring defense (46.7 points per game). Arkansas State is allowing 268.3 rushing yards per game, worst in the Sun Belt, and the Red Wolves are also second-worst in passing defense, giving up 315.7 yards per game and 10.3 yards per pass attempt.

Why Arkansas State can cover

The claim to fame for Arkansas State is an explosive passing game, and it has been on full display in 2021. The Red Wolves lead the Sun Belt in passing offense, averaging 356.7 yards per game, and Arkansas State ranks in the top four of the conference in passing touchdowns (17), total offense (436.2 yards per game) and scoring offense (30.0 points per game). The Red Wolves have used multiple quarterbacks, but life is made easier for the signal-callers with a bevy of receiving options. 

Corey Rucker is a top-five player in the Sun Belt in receptions (32), receiving yards (482) and receiving touchdowns (seven), with Te'Vailance Hunt also landing in the top six in both receptions (30) and receiving yards (456). Arkansas State can also lean on special teams for an advantage, particularly in the return game. Johnnie Lang leads the Sun Belt in punt return average, producing 19.2 yards per return, and Alan Lamar leads the conference with nearly 300 more kick return yards than any other player.

How to make Arkansas State vs. Louisiana picks

The model says to go under the total as the teams combine for 66 points in the simulations. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time. You can see which side to back at SportsLine.

So who wins Louisiana vs. Arkansas State? And which side of the spread is hitting well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model on a 22-9 run on its top-rated college football side picks, and find out.