The Virginia Cavaliers look to hand the Louisville Cardinals a second consecutive loss at 3 p.m. ET on Saturday at Cardinal Stadium. After two straight losses of its own, Virginia got back in the win column last Thursday, with a 30-28 win over Miami. Louisville had won three straight games prior to dropping its matchup last week against No. 24 Wake Forest.
Virginia has only been a road underdog one other time during head coach Bronco Mendenhall's tenure, and that came against Louisville in 2017. The Cardinals won that game 38-21, and covered as 11.5-point home favorites. The Cardinals are favored by 2.5 points in the latest Louisville vs. Virginia odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over-under is set at 66. Before entering any Virginia vs. Louisville picks, you'll want to see the college football predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,400 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 6 of the 2021 season on a 12-4 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Louisville vs. UVA. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football odds for UVA vs. Louisville:
- Louisville vs. Virginia spread: Louisville -2.5
- Louisville vs. Virginia over-under: 66 points
- Virginia: 2-8 overall and 4-6 against the spread in last ten games as road team
- Louisville: 7-0 overall and 5-2 ATS as home favorite since 2019
What you need to know about Louisville
Cardinals starting quarterback Malik Cunningham has been effective for Louisville this season, and has completed nearly 64 percent of his passes and averages eight yards per attempt.
Virginia has one of the worst rushing defenses in the country this season, and with injured starters in the front seven, Louisville may work the ground game more. Redshirt freshman Jalen Mitchell has averaged 4.3 yards per carry this season on 77 attempts. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have allowed nearly 195 yards per game from opposing rushing attacks.
What you need to know about Virginia
Things may be tougher on the defensive side of the ball this week for a side that was already 86th in the nation in scoring defense. Starting defensive end Adeeb Atariwa and linebacker Hunter Stewart are both questionable for Saturday. Starting tight end Jelani Woods, who is fourth on the team in receptions and has three touchdowns, is also in doubt for the game.
Virginia's offensive line has been subpar in pass protection this season and has already allowed 13 sacks. The offense has made up for it by converting on nearly half of their third downs, but the Cardinals defense has been surprisingly good at stopping them, and have held opponents to converting just 34 percent. Redshirt junior QB Brennan Armstrong is having his best season yet, and has completed nearly 65 percent of his passes for 1,973 yards with 14 touchdowns to four interceptions.
How to make Virginia vs. Louisville picks
The model is leaning over on the total, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Louisville vs. Virginia? And which side of the spread is a must-back? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college football picks
