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No. 10 Michigan State has a chance to extend its unbeaten start to the season when it travels to Indiana on Saturday. The Spartans have been one of the biggest surprises in the Big Ten this year, winning five of their six games by double digits. Indiana has been a disappointment, losing both of its conference games in blowout fashion.

Kickoff is set for noon ET. The Spartans are four-point favorites in the latest Michigan State vs. Indiana odds at Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for points scored is 48.5. Before locking in any Indiana vs. Michigan State picks, be sure to see the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,800 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 7 of the 2021 season on a 19-7 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now the model has dialed in on Michigan State vs. Indiana and just released its CFB picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see the model's picks. Here are the college football lines and trends for Indiana vs. Michigan State:  

  • Michigan State vs. Indiana spread: Michigan State -4
  • Michigan State vs. Indiana over-under: 48.5
  • Michigan State vs. Indiana money line: Indiana +150, Michigan State -175
  • MSU: The Spartans have won five straight games
  • IND: The total has gone over in five of Hoosiers' previous six games against the Spartans
Featured Game | Indiana Hoosiers vs. Michigan State Spartans

Why Michigan State can cover

Second-year head coach Mel Tucker has led Michigan State back to the top 10 for the first time since 2016. The Spartans are coming off a 31-13 win at Rutgers, where running back Kenneth Walker III had another big game. He has burst into the Heisman Trophy conversation, leading the nation with 913 rushing yards and nine touchdowns.

Quarterback Payton Thorne has been rock-solid, throwing 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Indiana has yet to score a touchdown against a Big Ten opponent this season and starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is expected to sit out with a shoulder injury. The Hoosiers have already lost more games than they did last season. 

Why Indiana can cover

Last year's Indiana team shut out Michigan State 24-0. While this season's squad isn't quite as talented, it does have an edge on defense. Michigan State is averaging 487.3 yards per game on offense but is giving up 420.2 yards per contest on defense. Nebraska tallied 429 yards of offense against the Spartans in a 23-20 loss earlier this year, and Indiana has the firepower to put up similar numbers.

The Hoosiers have shown a ton of promise at Memorial Stadium this year. While they're 1-1 on their home turf, they scored 24 points on No. 3 Cincinnati's sixth-ranked scoring defense after routing Idaho 56-14 in September. They are giving up less than 300 yards per game at Memorial Stadium this year. Indiana has covered the spread in its last two matchups against Michigan State, and a strong showing from its defense could help extend its streak to three games.

How to make Indiana vs. Michigan State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting 43 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Michigan State vs. Indiana? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is on a 19-7 run on top-rated side picks, and find out.