The No. 6 Oregon Ducks (4-0) will return home for the first time since the opening week of September when they host the Michigan State Spartans (3-2) on Friday night. Oregon picked up a 34-13 win at UCLA last week after crushing Oregon State in a 49-14 final. Michigan State won its first three games of the season, but it has dropped its two games since then. The Spartans and Ducks have not met since the 2018 Redbox Bowl, which ended in a 7-6 Oregon victory.
Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET at Autzen Stadium in Eugene. After opening at -26.5, the Ducks are now 23.5-point favorites, per SportsLine consensus, in the latest Oregon vs. Michigan State odds. The over/under for total points is 52. Before entering any Michigan State vs. Oregon picks, you'll want to see the college football predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also went a sizzling 6-0 on all top-rated college football picks in Week 5. Anyone who has followed it has seen strong returns.
The model has set its sights on Michigan State vs. Oregon. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football betting lines for the spread, money line and over/under for the game:
- Michigan State vs. Oregon spread: Oregon -23.5
- Michigan State vs. Oregon over/under: 52 points
- Michigan State vs. Oregon money line: Oregon -2381, Michigan State +1106
- Michigan State vs. Oregon picks: See picks here
- Michigan State vs. Oregon streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why Oregon can cover
Oregon's defense struggled in wins over Idaho and Boise State early in the season, but it has allowed just 27 total points in its last two games. The Ducks held UCLA to a 1-of-10 mark on third-down attempts last week, and senior quarterback Dillon Gabriel did his part with 280 passing yards and three touchdowns. Gabriel leads an offense that is averaging 36 points and 454 yards per game.
Michigan State is going on the road after getting crushed by Ohio State last week, managing just 246 total yards with three turnovers in that loss. The Spartans are playing on short rest and having to make a long trip to Eugene, making this a difficult scheduling spot for them. Oregon is 42-3 in its last 45 home games, while Michigan State has only covered the spread twice in its last six games. See which team to pick here.
Why Michigan State can cover
Michigan State only trailed Ohio State by a field goal with eight minutes remaining in the second quarter last week before falling apart. The Spartans had a great chance to win their previous road game at Boston College, but they were undone by four turnovers in that 23-19 loss. Their only other road game came at Maryland in Week 2, when Michigan State won outright as an 8-point underdog.
Sophomore quarterback Aidan Chiles has shown promise through his first five games, racking up 1,058 passing yards and five touchdowns. He has a pair of quality running backs behind him in Nate Carter and Kay'ron Lynch-Adams, who have combined for more than 540 rushing yards. The Spartans are 13-1 in their last 14 Friday games, while Oregon has only covered the spread twice in its last six games. See which team to pick here.
How to make Oregon vs. Michigan State picks
The model has simulated Michigan State vs. Oregon 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Oregon vs. Michigan State, and which side of the spread is hitting 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Michigan State vs. Oregon spread to jump on, all from the advanced computer model that's up well over $2,000 on its top-rated college football spread picks since its inception, and find out.