Michigan State vs. Penn State odds, line: 2018 college football picks, predictions from expert who's 10-1 on Nittany Lions games

Coming off a bye week following their crushing loss to Ohio State, the Penn State Nittany Lions return to action Saturday when they host the Michigan State Spartans at 3:30 p.m. ET. In the latest Penn State vs. Michigan State odds, the Nittany Lions are 13.5-point favorites, while the over-under for total points scored is 53, down from an open of 56.5. Both teams enter the Saturday Big Ten game with a 1-1 conference record and the bitter taste of defeat still in their mouths. Before you enter your Penn State vs. Michigan State picks, you'll want to check out what SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh has to say.

The renowned co-founder of AccuScore, Oh simulates each game 10,000 times using the SportsLine projection model. Oh is crushing college football in 2018, and he has been extremely impressive when it comes to handicapping Penn State, as he boasts a 10-1 mark against the spread over the past two seasons on games involving the Nittany Lions. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, he has crunched the numbers and generated a strong point-spread selection for Penn State vs. Michigan State. It's only available over at SportsLine. 

Oh knows that Penn State can keep its foot in the door of the College Football Playoff with a dominant performance. Even in their loss to Ohio State at home, the Nittany Lions looked like serious title contenders.

Quarterback Trace McSorley did everything he could to lead Penn State to glory, accumulating a staggering 461 yards of total offense against the Buckeyes. If he puts together a similar performance against the Spartans, Michigan State will have trouble keeping pace with Penn State's explosive offense.

But just because Penn State features a high-powered attack doesn't mean it will cover a 13.5-point spread against a Michigan State team that has defeated the Nittany Lions in four of the past five meetings.

Michigan State has been battle-tested in tight football games this season, with no margin of victory exceeding 14 points. If things stay tight, the Spartans might be able to force Penn State to relive some of the unfortunate mistakes that cost them against Ohio State.

To do that, Michigan State will need Brian Lewerke to avoid turnovers and manage the game on the road. He has already proven he can put up strong numbers against Penn State, throwing for 400 yards and two touchdowns in the Spartans' home victory last season.

Oh has analyzed this matchup from every possible angle and while we can tell you he's leaning over, he has discovered a crucial x-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back. He's only sharing his pick over at SportsLine.

Who covers Michigan State-Penn State? And what crucial x-factor causes one side of the spread to hit hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump all over Saturday, all from the data scientist who's 10-1 on picks involving Penn State. 

Our Latest Stories