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Texas quarterback Casey Thompson faces the team that his father led when he and the No. 21 Texas Longhorns square off against the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners in the 2021 Red River Showdown on Saturday in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. Thompson, a junior from Newcastle, Okla., is the son of Charles Thompson, who played quarterback for the Sooners in 1987 and '88 and led No. 2 Oklahoma to a 17-7 victory over No. 1 Nebraska as a redshirt freshman. The younger Thompson has helped Texas (4-1, 2-0 in Big 12) rebound from a loss at Arkansas with three straight wins. Meanwhile Oklahoma (5-0, 2-0) has dropped in the polls after multiple closer-than-expected wins. 

Kickoff is noon ET. The Sooners are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Oklahoma vs. Texas odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 64. Before making any Texas vs. Oklahoma picks or college football predictions, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,400 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 6 of the 2021 season on a 12-4 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now the model has dialed in on Oklahoma vs. Texas and just locked in its CFB picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are the CFB Week 6 odds and betting lines for Texas vs. Oklahoma:  

  • Oklahoma vs. Texas spread: Sooners -3.5
  • Oklahoma vs. Texas over-under: 64 points 
  • Oklahoma vs. Texas money line: Sooners -160, Longhorns +140 
  • OU: Spencer Rattler ranks No. 2 in the country in completion percentage (76.2) 
  • TEX: Bijan Robinson is No. 2 in the nation in rushing yards per game (130.4)
Featured Game | Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Why the Sooners can cover

Oklahoma has a pass-rushing menace in Nik Bonitto. A 6-foot-3, 240-pound linebacker from Fort Lauderdale, Fla., who was recruited by former Texas coach Tom Herman, Bonitto leads the Sooners with 5.5 tackles for loss this season and ranks third on the team in sacks (2.5). Over the last two matchups against Texas, he has three sacks and 3.5 tackles for loss. On Saturday he is likely to go up against either Longhorns left tackle Christian Jones, who has struggled this season, or redshirt freshman right tackle Andrej Karic, who will be making just his second career start.

In addition, Oklahoma has a defense that can slow Texas running back Bijan Robinson. The Sooners have held all five opponents this season to 100 or fewer rushing yards (79.4 yards per game). Over Oklahoma's last 18 games, only one opposing running back has rushed for 100 yards (Iowa State's Breece Hall).

Why the Longhorns can cover

Texas has one of the best rushing attacks in the country. Led by a stable of running backs -- Bijan Robinson, Roschon Johnson and Keilan Robinson -- the Longhorns lead the Big 12 and rank fifth in the country in rushing yards per game (265.8). And Bijan Robinson is on a roll. In five games this season, the sophomore has 663 yards on 105 carries (6.2 yards per carry) and seven touchdowns and has emerged as one of the leading candidates for the Heisman Trophy.

In addition, Texas faces an Oklahoma offense that hasn't been as effective running the ball as in years past. The Sooners average 155.0 rushing yards per game, which ranks seventh in the Big 12 and 75th in the country. They have not finished a season averaging fewer rushing yards per game since 2010 (138.0).

How to make Oklahoma vs. Texas picks

The model is projecting over on the point total, suggesting the teams combine for 72 points. The model also says one side of the Oklahoma vs. Texas point spread has all the value. You can only get the model's Texas vs. Oklahoma ATS pick at SportsLine

So who wins Texas vs. Oklahoma? And which side of the spread has all of the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Oklahoma vs. Texas spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $3,400 over the past five-plus years on top-rated picks, and find out.