Oklahoma vs. Texas odds, line: 2019 Red River Showdown picks, best predictions from expert who's 7-0 on Sooners games

The No. 11 Texas Longhorns can take a huge step on Saturday toward reaching their goal of winning the Big 12 when they square off with the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners in the Red River Showdown in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. The Longhorns (4-1, 2-0 in Big 12) are tied with Oklahoma and Baylor (both 5-0, 2-0) atop the conference standings. A victory over the Sooners would open the path for Texas to reach the Big 12 Championship Game and make the Longhorns arguably the best one-loss team in the country. Meanwhile Oklahoma, a team that has crushed five overmatched opponents, will be facing its biggest test of the season. Kickoff is set for noon ET. The Sooners are 10.5 point favorites in the latest Oklahoma vs. Texas odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 75.5. Before you make any Oklahoma vs. Texas picks of your own, make sure you check out the college football predictions from SportsLine and CBS Sports expert Tom Fornelli.

The CBS national writer entered this season with a wallet-fattening 216-179 in his popular "Six Pack" college football column the past four years. He also has demonstrated his expertise in every sport for SportsLine members. What's more, he's had a keen eye for the tendencies of the Sooners and is 7-0 in his last seven against the spread picks involving Oklahoma. Anyone who has followed Fornelli's advice is way up.

Now, he has zeroed in on Oklahoma vs. Texas from every angle and released a confident pointspread pick for the 2019 Red River Rivalry that he's sharing over at SportsLine.

Fornelli knows that quarterback Jalen Hurts and the Sooners can exploit the Longhorns' weakness on defense. Oklahoma ranks fifth in the country in passing yards per game (355.4). Meanwhile, Texas is fifth-to-last in the nation in passing yards allowed per contest (325.0). In the Longhorns' loss to LSU, they gave up 471 passing yards and four touchdowns through the air to the Tigers. Texas will also be without three key defensive backs because of injury: safety Caden Sterns (knee) and corners Jalen Green (shoulder) and Josh Thompson (foot).

Fornelli also knows that the Sooners have been careful with the ball this season. They've turned the ball over just four times, tied for the eighth-fewest in the country. In last season's regular season matchup between these teams, a game in which Texas won 48-45, Oklahoma turned the ball over three times, leading to 10 Longhorns points.

But just because the Sooners appear to have the edge on paper does not guarantee they will cover the Oklahoma vs. Texas spread on Saturday.

Though he has been overshadowed by other quarterbacks, the Longhorns' Sam Ehlinger is playing at an elite level. The junior quarterback has passed for 17 touchdowns (fifth best in the country) and rushed for three more while throwing just two interceptions. He ranks sixth in the country in points responsible for (122) and ninth in total offense (336.8 yards per game). With Ehlinger as a starter over the last three seasons, Texas has lost only one game by more than seven points.

In addition the Longhorns have a significant size advantage with their outside receivers facing Oklahoma's corners. Collin Johnson (6-foot-6), Brennan Eagles (6-4) and Malcolm Epps (6-6) will be up against a defense where the tallest corner is 6-foot Parnell Motley. The size edge will come into play down the field and when the receivers are blocking for Devin Duvernay and Jake Smith on screens.

Fornelli has broken down this matchup from every angle. We can tell you he is leaning under, but he also says a critical x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. He's sharing what it is, and who to back, only at SportsLine.

Who wins Texas vs. Oklahoma? And what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texas vs. Oklahoma spread you should jump on Saturday, all from the seasoned expert who has hit seven straight picks involving the Sooners.

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