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The Mississippi State Bulldogs opened the 2021 season with a pair of victories at home, but they came up short against LSU and Alabama in the next two games on their own field. They have bounced back nicely, however, posting home triumphs in which they outscored Kentucky and Tennessee State by a combined 86-27 margin. Mississippi State (7-4, 4-3) looks to end the regular season with a three-game home winning streak when it hosts the ninth-ranked and SEC-rival Ole Miss Rebels in the 2021 Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving Day.

Kickoff at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Miss. is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. The Bulldogs are 2.5-point favorites in the latest Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 65. Before locking in any Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 13 of the 2021 season on a 39-25 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in on Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State and just revealed its picks and Egg Bowl 2021 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the CFB odds and betting lines for Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss:  

  • Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss spread: Mississippi State -2.5
  • Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss over-under: 65 points
  • Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss money line: Bulldogs -135, Rebels +115
  • MSU: The Bulldogs are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games
  • UM: The Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with the Bulldogs
Featured Game | Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Why Mississippi State can cover

The Bulldogs are coming off a 55-10 victory over Tennessee State on Saturday in which they accumulated 600 yards of total offense, including 493 through the air. Will Rogers threw for 391 of those yards before taking the rest of the game off to increase his season total to 4,113, which ranks second in the nation. The sophomore quarterback, who leads the country with a 76 percent completion rate, has recorded at least 300 passing yards in 10 of his 11 games this year, falling just six yards shy of the mark in the other.

Rogers has excelled in coach Mike Leach's "Air Raid" offense in 2021, breaking several school passing records while ranking sixth in the nation with 34 touchdown passes. 

Wideout Makai Polk gained 110 on Saturday to raise his season total to a team-leading 891 and become the fifth Bulldog since 2000 to record 800 through 11 games. The junior is one reception away from breaking the school's single-season record of 88 set in 2015 by Fred Ross. In Polk, sophomore Jaden Walley (569) and senior Austin Williams (519), Mississippi State has multiple receivers with at least 500 yards for the seventh time in program history (first since 1961) and three for the first time.

Why Ole Miss can cover

The Rebels have a Heisman Trophy contender in Matt Corral, who has registered 3,100 passing yards with 19 touchdowns and only three interceptions. The junior, who is expected to enter the 2022 NFL Draft, is one of just three quarterbacks in the nation with at least 15 TD passes and 10 rushing scores this season. Corral is Ole Miss' third-leading rusher with 552 yards and ranks ninth in the FBS with an average of 332.5 yards of total offense.

Wideout Jahcour Pearson has reached triple digits in receiving yards twice in his last three games after gaining 101 on four receptions in the Rebels' 31-17 triumph over Vanderbilt on Saturday. He produced a 135-yard performance against Auburn on Oct. 30. Fellow senior receiver Dontario Drummond leads Ole Miss with 53 receptions, 786 yards and eight touchdown catches after hauling in a scoring pass for the second straight contest in the victory.

How to make Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss picks

The model is going under on the total, projecting 54 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits over 60 percent of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine

So who wins Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State? And which side of the spread hits over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model on a 39-25 run on its top-rated college football side picks, and find out.