Pac-12 expert picks 2023: Most overrated and underrated teams, projected order of finish, bold predictions
Taking a close, detailed and opinionated look at the Pac-12 ahead of the 2023 college football season
By
David Cobb
•
10 min read
The end of an era awaits the Pac-12 as the once-proud bastion of West Coast college sports grapples with the looming departures of eight premier brands following the 2023 season. Before the collection of longtime league foes breaks apart, however, there is one final football season on deck -- and it's shaping up to be one to remember.
Six Pac-12 schools finished in the top 18 of the final College Football Playoff Rankings last season, and many of the marquee players who helped drive the league's return to relevance are back in 2023. It all starts with the quarterbacks, a group headlined by reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams as he seeks to lead No. 6 USC to a conference title after the Trojans were shellacked by Utah in last year's Pac-12 Championship Game.
The Utes are the two-time reigning champions and have a proven warrior at quarterback in Cameron Rising, who is entering the 2023 season on the mend from a torn ACL he suffered in the Rose Bowl. Other big-name quarterbacks include Oregon's Bo Nix and Washington's Michael Penix Jr., both of whom found new life in the Pac-12 last season as veteran transfers. Looking to follow in their footsteps this season will be Clemson transfer DJ Uiagalelei, who is hoping to reinvigorate his career with an Oregon State program coming off a 10-win season.
Combined, the high-caliber quarterbacks at established programs give the Pac-12 plenty of CFP contenders. But it's now or never as the league looks to snap a six-year CFP drought.
Will that drought end? Our CBS Sports college football experts have provided their picks and predictions for the Pac-12 ahead of the 2023 season.
Most overrated team
USC: The Trojans were picked to win the Pac-12, but I'm not sure why. Williams is back, sure, but the landscape of the conference doesn't lend itself to the reigning Heisman winner leading them to Pac-12 glory. Why? Considering the quarterback talent elsewhere in the conference, virtually every USC game will result in shootouts. Defensive fundamentals have been sorely lacking for coach Lincoln Riley dating back to his Oklahoma days, and that was the case in Los Angeles last year as well. Plus, the 1.50 turnover margin -- the best mark in the nation -- is unsustainable and unlikely to carry over from year to year. -- Barrett Sallee (Dennis Dodd, Jerry Palm)
Colorado: It's hard to find a team that's overrated in the Pac-12 because there's such a clear divide between the top tier and everyone else, but nobody on the bottom tier has gotten as much attention this offseason as Colorado. Deion Sanders has overhauled the roster dramatically, and while his hire could pay off big time down the road, the Buffaloes are still likely to finish at the bottom of the league in 2023. -- Tom Fornelli (Shehan Jeyarajah, Will Backus)
Washington: Washington didn't play Utah or USC last season on its way to an impressive 11-2 record under first-year coach Kalen DeBoer. This year, the Huskies play the Utes and Trojans in back-to-back weeks. Opening against Boise State and traveling to Michigan State also increases the schedule's difficulty. Teams won't be surprised by what DeBoer, Penix and a talented receiving corps throw at then this season. There is ample tape on this iteration of the Huskies available, and that will make it tough to reach double-digit victories again. -- David Cobb
Oregon State: I believe this is the most correctly rated conference in the country. I agree with the Pac-12 preseason media poll on eight of the 12 positions in the predicted order of finish while not differing on any team by more than one spot. Additionally, my view of where these teams stack up nationally seems to line up with the consensus; I'm within two spots of the AP Top 25 on my ranking of USC, Washington, Utah and Oregon, but that's where I was able to really stretch to find an "overrated." The AP poll has Oregon State at No. 18 and I've got them at No. 25 heading into the year. I celebrate the breakthrough season of 2022 for coach Jonathan Smith, I just have them a half-step behind teams like Oklahoma and Texas A&M, both of whom fall behind the Beavers in the national rankings. -- Chip Patterson
Most underrated team
Oregon: I find myself backing up an Oregon team that was knocking on the door of a Pac-12 title game appearance a year ago. The preseason media poll has the Ducks at fourth in the conference while I have them in third behind USC and Washington (two of the eight spots where I'm in lock step with the league's official preseason rankings). The AP Top 25 has Dan Lanning's group at No. 15 while I've got them at No. 13. Oregon has recruited better than anyone else in the Pac-12 over the last four years and picked up a couple key additions in the transfer portal that will help Nix and Co. make another run at a conference title. -- Patterson
Utah: Even if Utah starts 0-2 against Florida and Baylor while Rising and star tight end Brant Kuithe work back from torn ACL injuries, the sleepy ol' Utes could still win the Pac-12. Rising is a battle-tested veteran, Kuithe is among the nation's best tight ends and Ja'Quinden Jackson is poised to become the program's latest 1,000-yard rusher behind another elite offensive line. The defense remains a nasty group under coordinator Morgan Scalley with proven playmakers in every position group. The other Pac-12 contenders have newer coaches and flashier quarterbacks, leading many to sleep on the Utes yet again. Doubt the Utah at your own peril. -- Cobb
UCLA: You hear a lot of talk about USC, Washington, Oregon and two-time defending champion Utah, but there hasn't been much buzz around the Bruins. There should be. While Dorian Thompson-Robinson is gone, UCLA still has talent on both sides of the ball and could have a star-in-the-making in freshman QB Dante Moore. Oh, and just in case Chip Kelly isn't creative enough on offense, former Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo has been added to the staff. UCLA's offense should be very entertaining. -- Fornelli (Palm)
Washington: USC dominates the headlines. Oregon State, Washington State, Stanford and Cal are looking for a home. Can we talk about Washington football after the Huskies very quietly went 11-2 in Kalen DeBoer's first season? Offensively, most of the biggest pieces return. Penix guided the nation's No. 2 offense while leading the Power Five in passing (4,641 yards). He has two 1,000-yard receivers returning: Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan. Bralen Trice is among the best edge rushers in the country. Oregon and Utah visit Montlake, Washington, while UCLA isn't on the schedule. With a win at USC, the Huskies could be staring at the Pac-12's first CFP berth since 2016. -- Dodd
Oregon State: Oregon State is America's Team. Sorry, I don't make the rules. Left by the wayside in the latest wave of conference realignment, the Beavers are more than capable of winning the Pac-12 and sending two-thirds of the league off on their new adventures empty-handed. DJU is a huge upgrade at quarterback, and returning four out of five starters on the offensive line helps. The defense has to replace some studs, but the Beavers have steadily improved on that side of the ball in each of their five seasons under Smith as coach. -- Backus (Sallee, Jeyarajah)
Bold predictions
- Dennis Dodd: The last season of this version of the Pac-12 will be one of the best. The league gets its second consecutive Heisman winner with Washington's Penix earning the honor and three teams into New Year's Six bowls -- including the Huskies earning the conference's first CFP berth in seven years.
- Chip Patterson: Rookie quarterbacks will pop in the Pac-12. I'm not sure how many of the freshman quarterbacks will start Week 1, but I think we see a youth movement across the league over the course of the season. Jaden Rashada has already been tapped as the starter for Arizona State. Dante Moore has an extremely high ceiling at UCLA. While Oregon State has turned to Uiagalelei as its starter, there is plenty of excitement about what Aidan Chiles can do for the Beavers offense in the future. The Pac-12 has rightfully gained attention for its quarterback strength and experience at the top with Williams, Penix, Nix and Rising, but there's some young talent that could burst onto the scene as well during the year.
- Barrett Sallee: Oregon will beat Washington for the second time this season when the two meet in the Pac-12 Championship Game. With that win, the Ducks earn a College Football Playoff bid under the leadership of Heisman Trophy finalist Nix.
- Shehan Jeyarajah: Oregon State will be the wrecking ball no one sees coming. The Beavers will win 10 regular-season games and emerge victorious in two of three matchups with Utah, Washington and Oregon. At the end of the year, people will look at Uiagalelei's improvement the same way they look at Nix and Penix's transformations.
- Jerry Palm: Oregon State may be abandoned, along with Washington State, but the Beavers have the ability to take out some frustrations on those leaving them behind. They'll have at least one head-turning upset in them in conference play this season.
- David Cobb: DJU will find his footing under Smith at Oregon State and lead the Beavers to another 10-win season. The ex-Clemson quarterback and former five-star prospect will become a Day 2 NFL Draft pick.
- Will Backus: The Pac-12 is college football's most interesting conference in what is likely its final year of existence. There are at least six teams with a realistic shot at the title and the race for the championship game will come down to the last couple weeks. Plus, the league's star power at quarterback is unmatched.
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Pac-12 champion
USC: It's easy to forget after the Cotton Bowl collapse, but the Trojans were arguably a Williams injury away from playing in the College Football Playoff in Riley's first season. Now, USC boasts the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, a top-five transfer class and ranks top 15 nationally in returning defensive production. Adding blue-chip defensive line transfers Anthony Lucas and Bear Alexander should only lead to defensive improvements. The Trojans are the class of the Pac-12 in the league's final season in its current makeup and should be an early favorite to earn the league's first trip to the CFP since 2016 so long as Williams can stay healthy. -- Jeyarajah (Fornelli, Patterson, Palm, Backus)
Oregon: Did everybody forget that Oregon was in the midst of the Pac-12 title race in mid-November before quarterback Nix got hurt? Anybody? Anybody? Bueller? Well, the Ducks will not only be in the mix this season, they're going to win it. The combination of Nix, a stellar running back corps and depth on the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball will get them into the conference title game. They'll get a good 60 minutes from Nix and crew, win the title and head to the CFP. -- Sallee
Utah: The Utes remains a force of physicality in a league known for finesse. Williams, Penix and Nix can air it out with the best in college football, but Rising has some things in his camp that they don't -- namely Utah's well-rounded defense and elite physicality on both lines of scrimmage. While the Utes are lacking high-end perimeter playmakers, their imposing style is proven in the Pac-12. They're the two-time reigning champions and nothing suggests they'll relinquish the crown in 2023. -- Cobb
Washington: Penix actually watched film of the Washington offensive line before transferring from Indiana. He scouted well. The Washington line kept Penix upright enough for throw for almost 4,700 yards last season while only allowing seven sacks in 575 pass attempts. Three starters have departed, which is kind of where the season hinges. The offense will still carry this team, but it still matters that almost no one is noticing what is happening in Seattle. If it wasn't USC and Williams, it was realignment stealing the spotlight. The Huskies should be able to win nine games just by outscoring opponents. The difference will be swing games at USC, at home against Utah and at Oregon State -- all in the span of three consecutive Saturdays. The defense gave up points in bunches. If it can lower the average of 26 points surrendered in 2022 to, say, 22, that might be the difference in getting through that three-game stretch. -- Dodd
