Path to the BCS
What has to happen for each team to get to the BCS title game, or just to the BCS
Only a few weeks remain in the regular season. Here is a look at what teams have to do to reach the BCS. Each team is listed with its current record, BCS ranking and remaining games.
Controls its destiny
Florida State (10-1, 10, Florida, ACC) -- Their path to the Orange Bowl is clear, but their computer rankings are so bad, it's hard to see them in the title game, even if they are the only one-loss team.
Georgia Tech (6-5, T66, @Georgia) -- Georgia Tech won the Coastal division Monday morning when Miami declared itself inelgible. They could play in the Orange Bowl if things go well, or not play in any bowl at all if they don't.
Nebraska (10-2, 14, vs Wisconsin) -- The Cornhuskers will play Wisconsin for the Big Ten title. It is unlikely another loss would keep them high enough in the rankings to qualify as a BCS at-large team.
Wisconsin (7-4, 36, @Penn State, vs Nebraska) -- Wisconsin emerged the best of the steaming pile that is the eligible teams in the Leaders Division and has already clinched a spot in the Big Ten title game. They can tie for second in the division overall with a win at Penn State.
Kansas State (10-1, 6, BYE, Texas) -- The bye week comes at a good time for the Wildcats, who need to lick their wounds, both physical and emotional. They still win the league by beating Texas.
Louisville (9-1, 20, UConn, Rutgers) -- The Cards' undefeated season ended last week at Syracuse, but they still win the Big East and a BCS berth by winning out.
Rutgers (9-1, 18, @Pitt, Louisville) -- Rutgers can win the league this week by beating Pitt and getting some help with the Cards. Most likely though, it'll come down to next week.
Stanford (9-2, 8, @UCLA, Pac-12) -- Stanford could have a UCLA double header, but the Cardinal has to win the first one to make it happen. Stanford might be BCS eligible at 9-3 and could end up in the Fiesta Bowl.
UCLA (9-2, 17, Stanford, Pac-12) -- UCLA clinched their spot in the Pac-12 title game. Now the Bruins have a say in their opponent. Beat Stanford, and they could get a shot at Oregon. Lose, and they get another try at the Cardinal. 9-3 UCLA is probably not BCS eligible; but 10-3 UCLA might be.
Alabama (10-1, 2, Auburn, SEC) -- The Tide caught a break and are now back in control of their chances to defend their title.
Georgia (9-1, 3, Georgia Tech, SEC) -- Everything I stated about Alabama goes here, too, except that the Bulldogs have already clinched their spot in Atlanta and that they have no title to defend.
Needs some help
Oklahoma (8-2, 13, Okla State, @TCU) -- The Sooners win the league if they win out and Kansas State loses to Texas. Winning out puts them in the BCS at-large pool, and they would almost certainly get picked. Some Sooners fans are hoping for a rivalry revival with Nebraska in the Rose Bowl. That could happen if the Wildcats lose once, Oregon plays Notre Dame in the BCS title game, and no Pac-12 team is eligible to replace the Ducks in the Rose Bowl.
Oregon (10-1, 5, @Oregon St) -- The Ducks coughed it up and are now depending on the kindness of strangers (UCLA), a kindness they would repay by trying to beat the snot out of them.
LSU (10-2, 7) -- The Tigers would win any divisional tie that involves Texas A&M. Of course, that requires a loss by Alabama to Auburn. LSU is also an attractive at-large candidate. And if the Tigers win the SEC and get some help, they could even play for the BCS title.
BCS at-large possibility only
Clemson (10-1, 11, South Carolina) -- Beating South Carolina would put the Tigers in the BCS at-large pool for sure, and 10-2 might as well, though they might not get selected. Like FSU, even if they are the only one-loss team, their computer rankings might keep them out of the BCS title game, although they are slightly better than the Seminoles' rankings.
Michigan (7-3, 19, @Ohio State) -- It's unlikely that a 9-3 record gets them into the top 14, though you never know what kind of boost a win at Ohio State might provide.
Notre Dame (11-0, 1, @USC) -- The Irish are in position to play for its first national title in almost 25 years. There's just this little matter of archrival USC. Even with a loss, ND will automatically qualify and there are scenarios where they could even play for the title.
Oregon State (8-2, 15, Oregon, Nicholls State) -- The Beavers can't win the Pac-12, but might be able to get into the top 14 with a 9-3 record. 10-2 would do it for sure.
Florida (10-1, 4, @Florida State) -- The Gators can't win the league but will be in the at-large pool. Beating FSU probably gets them picked for a BCS game. They may even be automatic.
South Carolina (9-2, 12, @Clemson) -- USC-East will be in the at-large pool if they beat Clemson, but doesn't seem likely to get chosen.
Texas A&M (9-2, 9, Mizzou) -- See South Carolina (substitute Missouri for Clemson).
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