Pick Six: Be confident in picking Wisconsin-Michigan and UCLA-USC

This week is a bit troubling. You see, last week Pick Six had its first losing week of the season. That in itself isn't much of a problem.

Nobody is getting through an entire season without a bad week.

What worries me is that the bad week comes before one of the worst weeks on the college football schedule. It's times like these we must return to our principles and trust that they'll come through.

Games of the Week

No. 5 Wisconsin (-7.5) vs. No. 24 Michigan: It's the only game on the schedule this week that matters -- well, that should matter -- and I'm not all that confident it'll be an interesting one. Michigan has looked good in recent weeks, but its done so at home against Rutgers and Minnesota, as well as on the road against a Maryland team playing its fifth quarterback of the season.

Michigan's thrown for a total of 338 yards in those wins. That's only 112.7 yards per game, which is still 50 yards fewer per game than the paltry 165.2 yards per game Michigan's throwing for on the season. The point I'm trying to make here is that Michigan is one-dimensional on offense. Granted, so is Wisconsin to an extent, but while the Badgers aren't going to air it out against anybody, they're much more efficient in the passing game than Michigan is.

Also, Wisconsin has a terrific defense. Using S&P+, the Badgers have the best defense in the country. Given what I've seen from the Michigan offense this season, I have a hard time believing the Wolverines are going to go into Camp Randall Stadium and put up more than 17 points against this team. Take Wisconsin and lay the points. Wisconsin 24, Michigan 14

UCLA at No. 11 USC (Under 71.5): You know how hard it was finding a second game to consider a "Game of the Week" in this slate? In the end, I chose this one simply because of the rivalry involved. It's important to these teams, if not the rest of the country.

Then I saw a total that I believe to be too high. Now, UCLA's defense is capable of giving up a lot of points, and I think that the Trojans can probably score as many points as they want to in this game. The problem is I have a hard time trusting UCLA to find consistent success on offense, and that helps the under play here. Furthermore, nine of the last 11 meetings between these two have stayed under. A 10th was a push. Stick with that trend. USC 42, UCLA 24

Lock of the Week

Iowa (-7.5) vs. Purdue: I was a fervent supporter of Purdue early this season, but things have headed the wrong direction lately. In Big Ten play, the Boilermakers have gone on the road three times, and they're 0-3. Granted, they've lost those three games by an average of only 6.7 points, but I'm not confident this week. Iowa has been marvelous at home this year and is 3-0-1 ATS at home in conference play. Iowa 27, Purdue 14

Underdog of the Week

UL-Monroe (+37) at No. 6 Auburn: There's been a clear trend this season. Underdogs of 30 points or more have gone 57-21 ATS. That's a cover rate of 73.1 percent. Now combine this trend with the fact Auburn is coming off a major win against Georgia and has Alabama looming on the schedule next week. And as far as ULM is concerned, the Warhawks haven't played any Auburns this season, but they haven't been blown out at any point. Their biggest loss of the year is 11 points. All of these things together should convince you that Auburn's not covering this spread. Auburn 45, UL-Monroe 10

Over of the Week

Texas A&M at Ole Miss (Over 68): Ole Miss has been the most reliable, and most profitable over team this season. The over has hit in nine of the Rebels' 10 games this year, and it's typically done so with ease. Also, while 68 seems like a high total, there's been an average of 73 points in Ole Miss' six SEC games this season. I'm expecting another ridiculous shootout here. Texas A&M 38, Ole Miss 34

Under of the Week

Army at North Texas (Under 58): North Texas has been a strong over team this season, and I think that's something we can use to our advantage this week. That history this season has inflated the total in this game to 58, and that seems a touch too high considering the Mean Green are going against Army here. Option teams and unders tend to work well together, and I think they will here. Army 24, North Texas 23